Research for CRM

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Current Cost Analysis Practice in the Navy - Estimating the Effects of Competition
April 1, 1987
An evaluation of current Navy practices for assessing the cost effects of production competition in programs using dual production sources is presented. Weapon system cost analysis practices are presented first as a baseline, followed by discussion of particular methods used when two production sources are expected. The scope of the evaluation was limited to cost analysis practices at the headquarters level in the three hardware systems commands and at what is now the Naval Center for Cost Analysis.
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Managing Sustaining Engineering in Weapon Systems: Phase I
March 1, 1987
CNA was tasked to study sustaining engineering by the VCNO. This research memorandum explains the origin of the tasking and describes the analytic and procedural approach to the problem as originally conceived. Some of the early substantive findings are reported. When preliminary results were briefed to the VCNO, the original tasking was revised and expanded. The general contents of subsequent documents in this series are also outlined.
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Projected Costs for the Tanker Portion of the Ready Reserve Force
February 1, 1987
Estimates of the costs of the tanker portion of the Ready Reserve Force (RRF) from 1987 to 1995 are provided. These estimates show what it would cost if the Navy chose to fill the entire shortfall of U.S.-owned militarily useful tankers by building up the RRF. The study does not recommend this course of action, but merely establishes what the Navy's dollar costs are likely to be in the years ahead. An important finding is that the annual costs of an RRF of that size would substantially exceed budgeted funds as reflected in the latest Five Year Defense Plan. Without additional funding of about $200 million or more per year over the next nine years, the tanker RRF probably would not be able to accomplish the Navy's fuel-delivery mission. Even with such an infusion of funds the RRF may not be workable, because adequate supplies of U.S. merchant sailors and U.S. shipyards may not be available.
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Summary of the Active/Reserve Force Mix Study
February 1, 1987
Because savings are usually expected when responsibilities are transferred from Active to Reserve units, Congress directed the services in 1984 to prepare annual reports outlining how they would provide the Reserve with new missions, more modern equipment, and greater integration with the active forces. The purpose of the Active/Reserve Force Mix Study was to provide analytical assistance to the Navy in preparing its annual report. This research memorandum summarizes the analyses conducted for the study. The availability of personnel to man missions being transferred to the Reserve forces is studied. In particular, this paper examines which homeports will be most able to support the Naval Reserve Force, what determines whether Navy veterans will affiliate with the Selected Reserves, and what the supply will be of aviation officers leaving active duty. Better techniques for estimating the cost savings of Reserve units are developed, and the operating and support costs of aviation units, especially personnel costs, are discussed.
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The Joint Specialist Community Model
February 1, 1987
A joint specialist is an Officer who has attended a joint professional military education school such as the Armed Forces Staff College followed by a joint-duty assignment. This research memorandum describes the Joint Specialist Community Model designed to provide Navy policymakers and planners with information for managing joint billets and the joint specialist community in ranks O-4 through O-6. The model uses variables such as the average billet length and promotion rates to determine both the size of the joint specialist community and the number of O-6s able to meet the joint service requirement for promotion to ranks O-7 and above (i.e., flag). The model has been installed on a Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheet to facilitate its use in studying policy options.
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Calculating the Year-to-Year Size and Experience Level of a Changing Group
February 1, 1987
CNA's Total Force Utilization Study examines alternative ways to man the 600-Ship Navy. Some of the important issues involve questions about accessions, retention, and the evolution of groups-such as ratings-in terms of the numbers and experience levels of their members. Consequently, the study developed a model that relates these factors quantitatively. This research memorandum describes the model and illustrates its potential uses with a few examples. The focus is on documentation of methodology, not on specific applications.
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Manpower and Workload Factors that Dominate Navy Individual Training Costs
February 1, 1987
This research memorandum is the final report on a study of the factors that affect the costs of training Navy personnel. It identifies the relationship between students undergoing specialized skill training and the dominant operating costs of conducting that training.
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Confidence Interval for Parameter n in a Binomial Distribution
January 1, 1987
A simple procedure to approximate a confidence interval for the parameter n in a binomial distribution is presented in this research memorandum. A simulation procedure to verify the coverage of confidence intervals is presented in appendix A. An interactive computer program is included in appendix B. The program is written in the FORTRAN language, which is readily available in most computing environments. Tables with 90 percent and 95 percent confidence coefficients are included in appendix C.
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Equivalent-Groups Versus Single-Group Equating Designs for the Accelerated CAT-ASVAB Project
January 1, 1987
Before a Computerized Adaptive Testing (CAT) version of the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) can be implemented it must be equated to the pencil-and-paper version. This Research Memorandum reports analysis on the appropriateness of various equating designs.
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Marshal Ogarkov and the New Revolution in Soviet Military Affairs
January 1, 1987
When the Soviets accepted 'Mutual Assured Destruction' as a reality in present-day conditions, the Soviet debate on the viability of nuclear war as an instrument of policy was resolved by a consensus: nuclear war is so unpromising and dangerous that it remains an instrument of politics only in theory, an instrument of politics that cannot be used. A growing body of evidence thus indicates that in 1977, coincidentally with Marshal N.V. Ogarkov's elevation to Chief of the General Staff, the Soviets adopted an independent conventional war option as a long-term military development goal. Ogarkov and others now speak of a new revolution in Soviet military affairs that involves changes in Soviet doctrine generated by the so-called emerging technologies and the trend toward new, conventional means. The most prominent Soviet military figures now equate the new conventional means with nuclear weapons in terms of tasks, ranges, and target sets. A review of Soviet military writings in the 1980s further indicates that the new conventional means will be used in a war that involves neither the territories nor the nuclear forces of the superpowers.
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