Research for CRM

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Modeling Failures of Intermittently Used Machines
July 1, 1987
Many machines are used intermittently, that is, repeatedly turned on and off during normal operation. Eventually the machine fails. This research memorandum presents methodology for analyzing failures of machines that are repeatedly turned on and off. Because a machine can fail both when it is on and off, different parametric models for failure are used for each of these periods. An important issue addressed for such machines is how the intermittent use itself affects failure. Because the models can predict the chance of failure under different usage patterns, less harmful usage patterns can be recommended. As an example, the models are applied to a radar system, and both the immediate and cumulative effects of on-off cycling are demonstrated.
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Measures of Aircraft Reliability, Maintainability, and Safety: Do They Measure 'System Quality'?
June 1, 1987
Principal components analysis is applied to nine indicators of aircraft reliability, maintainability, and safety. The indicators are standard readiness measures such as mean time between failure at different points in the aircraft's career. The data are adjusted to include only the airframe. The assumption behind the analysis is that the observable variables are indicators of an underlying unobservable variable, 'airframe quality.' This principal components analysis provides a quality 'score' for each aircraft. Five of the six aircraft analyzed fall within one standard deviation of the average score. The scores for the first principal component account for over 85 percent of the variation in the original indicators, which is highly significant in a statistical sense. This finding supports the initial hypothesis; 'quality' exists and is the major source of variation across aircraft in the nine indicators.
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Composition and Trends of Navy Training Costs for Individual Training
June 1, 1987
This research memorandum describes the principal components of the Department of the Navy budget that relate to the conduct of Navy individual training. It defines and describes the content of the budget categories and details the dollar estimates and manpower levels associated with training for FY 1981 through FY 1986. It also explains the organizational responsibilities for the management of training resources as well as the conduct of the specific types of individual training.
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The Total Force Policy in Historical Perspective
June 1, 1987
CNA's Total Force Utilization Study was chartered to support development of a Total Force Master Plan for the Navy. This research memorandum provides essential historical background for such a plan by examining how the Total Force policy, particularly as it relates to active and reserve Naval forces, has evolved since its inception nearly two decades ago.
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Trends in C-School Skill Training
June 1, 1987
This research memorandum assesses the impact of changes in endstrength, force mix, technology, and other factors on specialized skill training load. It focuses on C-school training because that area has experienced the most growth. This work relates training to the number and types of personnel in the inventory and to manpower requirements.
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The Reserve Components Common Personnel Data System (RCCPDS) for Naval Reserve Enlisted Personnel
June 1, 1987
The Reserve Components Common Personnel Data System (RCCPDS) is an important source of Reserve manpower data. Its transaction file provides data on gains, losses, and reenlistments for each military service's Selected Reserve (SELRES). The strengths and weaknesses of the RCCPDS transaction file as a source of data on Navy SELRES manpower are examined, with particular emphasis on enlisted personnel.
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Alternative Modeling Approaches for Setting Cost-Effective Qualification Standards
May 1, 1987
The Rand Corporation has developed a model that determines cost-effective enlistment standards for Military Occupational Specialties. Since this model may have an impact on enlistment policy, it is important that the modeling approach used to determine the enlistment standards be fully understood. This research memorandum describes the modeling technique used by the Rand Corporation and compares the Rand approach to alternative modeling methods in an attempt to determine the sensitivity of the model outcome to the methodology employed.
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Retention Costs of the GI Bill and the Draft: New Evidence from the Navy's Enlisted Force
May 1, 1987
Drawing upon new data from the Navy's enlisted force, this study estimates the effect on military reenlistment rates of several major policy variables: eligibility for the Vietnam-era G.I. Bill, draft-pressure at the original enlistment point, and the amount of formal training given to enlistees in their first term. These specific effects are all shown to be substantially adverse, even after statistic controls have been established for other key determinants of military retention.
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Scaling the Proposed New Armed Forces Qualification Test Composed of Verbal, Arithmetic Reasoning, and Math Knowledge
April 1, 1987
The Numerical Operations (NO) subtest has caused problems for the joint-service testing program since it was made part of the Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) in 1980. A new AFQT, in which the Math Knowledge (MK) subtest replaces NO, was recommended by the Joint Service Selection and Classification Working Group in 1986. The purpose of this research memorandum is to present percentile score norms for the proposed new AFQT in the 1980 Youth Population and the scaling of the current forms of the AFQT to the 1980 score scale.
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Current Cost Analysis Practice in the Navy - Estimating the Effects of Competition
April 1, 1987
An evaluation of current Navy practices for assessing the cost effects of production competition in programs using dual production sources is presented. Weapon system cost analysis practices are presented first as a baseline, followed by discussion of particular methods used when two production sources are expected. The scope of the evaluation was limited to cost analysis practices at the headquarters level in the three hardware systems commands and at what is now the Naval Center for Cost Analysis.
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