Research for CRM

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Tracking Russian Foreign Policy Into The 21st Century: A Bear-Watcher's Guide
October 1, 1992
This research memorandum is one element of a comprehensive examination by CNA of the evolving Russian Navy for the Office of Naval Intelligence. It examines the likely paths of Russian foreign policy as the country moves into the 21st century and suggests that Russia's ability to conduct foreign policy in the future will be limited by the extent to which the nation advances in its ongoing economic and political reforms. The more successful the reforms, the greater will be Russia's capacity for an influential and vigorous foreign policy. In contrast to the communist period, the size and prominence of Russia's military will be inversely related to the scope of its foreign policy, i.e., the more activist Russia's foreign policy is, the more subordinate the military component will be in relation to other foreign policy resources. Thus, a militarized foreign policy will signal a failed domestic reform process and a weakened Russian state.
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USMC Active and Reserve Force Structure and Mix Study, Volume II: History and Policy
October 1, 1992
This research memorandum is the second in a set of five volumes documenting the Marine Corps Active and Reserve Force Structure and Mix Study. This volume examines the Marine implementation of Total Force Policy and two historical uses of the Marine Corps Reserve in regional conflict (the Korean and Persian Gulf wars). See also 27 920161, 27 920180, 27 920182, and 27 920185.
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Computing AFQT Scores From Historical Data
August 1, 1992
The Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) serves as an initial screen for military selection. AFQT scores must accurately reflect the quality of recruits who enter the services and must maintain the same meaning and interpretation over time. Unfortunately, several changes in the AFQT and other problems make such historical computations and score interpretations difficult. This research memorandum details these past problems and presents solutions that will allow for the proper computation of current AFQT scores from historical databases.
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Alternative-Fuel Vehicles for the Department of the Navy
July 1, 1992
Laws and regulations taking effect over the next several years will determine the types of administrative vehicles the Department of the Navy (DON) must buy. Of most concern are a recent Executive Order, which requires purchasing vehicles that operate on nonpetroleum fuels, and the Clean Air Act, which requires fleet owners to purchase low emission vehicles for use in certain parts of the country. CNA analyzed the options available to DON for meeting these requirements. The results tend to favor one alternative fuel for vehicles held for two or three years and different fuels for vehicles held for more than eight years. These results are sensitive to changes in fuel prices and other vehicle costs. Because current data are limited and the alternative-fuel-vehicle industry is undergoing rapid change, we recommend that DON not commit to a single technology until more is known about the on-road performance and costs of all the choices. Appendixes covering emissions, DON fleet composition and distribution, and cost comparisons are published separately as CNA Research Memorandum 92-92.
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Factor Structure and Incremental Validity of the Enhanced Computer-Administered Tests
July 1, 1992
The Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB), used to select and classify enlisted personnel, is highly correlated to math and verbal content areas. New computerized predictor tests that are sensitive to traits not measured by the current ASVAB subtests may be able to improve predictive validity. This research memorandum investigates the potential of one such group of tests, the Enhanced Computer-Administered Tests, to predict performance in the mechanical maintenance specialties.
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Russia's Navy From Peter to Stalin: Themes, Trends, and Debates
June 1, 1992
This research memorandum is one of a series of publications supporting a CNA project that is examining separate areas of Russian national interests and existing or potential constraints that will dictate the form and structure of any future Russian navy. It reviews the history and debates surrounding the Russian and Soviet navies from the era of Peter the Great to the death of Joseph Stalin and puts forward findings that may help the reader understand the forces that will shape Russian naval policies and programs in the decade ahead. The overall Future Russian Navy project is sponsored by the Director of Naval Intelligence.
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Desert Storm Reconstruction Report: Volume VIII: C3/Space and Electronic Warfare
June 1, 1992
At the request of Commander, U.S. Naval Forces, Central Command (COMUSNAVCENT), the Center for Naval Analyses conducted a reconstruction of selected events involving Naval forces during operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm. This volume of the Desert Storm Reconstruction Report documents observations derived from the reconstruction of selected portions of the Navy's Command, Control, and Communications and Space and Electronic Warfare (C3/SEW) efforts. Within the time limits imposed, the C3/SEW team focused on the following areas of concern: command structure, control and decision-making; communications connectivity and capacities; airborne electronic warfare; surface electronic warfare; operational deception; reconnaissance; space systems support; and contribution of the TRAP broadcast.
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Sensitivity and Fairness of the Marine Corps Mechanical Maintenance Composite
June 1, 1992
A score used for selection or classification should predict the performance of different population subgroups equally well. This research memorandum analyzes the prediction of hands-on performance in the automotive mechanic occupational specialty using the Marine Corps' Mechanical Maintenance composite.
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Development and Scoring of Hands-on Performance Tests for Mechanical Maintenance Specialties
March 1, 1992
This memorandum reports the procedures used for the development and scoring of hands-on performance tests for the mechanical maintenance phase of the Job Performance Measurement project.
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Personnel Tempo of Operations and Navy Enlisted Retention
February 1, 1992
This research memorandum documents analyses of the relationship between Personnel Tempo of Operations (PERSTEMPO) and enlisted retention. CNA's ship employment history files were used to reconstruct the PERSTEMPO experience of each surface ship since the mid-1970s. This PERSTEMPO information was added to the personnel records of sailors making retention decisions while aboard surface ships in the FY 1979 through FY 1988 period. Finally, information on pay, civilian employment opportunities, and bonuses was added to each sailor's record. A statistical regression technique was used to explore the relations between PERSTEMPO and retention. A by-product of the study is updated estimates of the relationship and relative military pay, unemployment rates, and selective reenlistment bonuses.
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