Research for CRM

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November 1, 1993
The attitudes of the population at large and the expectations of young men and women about appropriate gender roles have undergone a major transformation over the past three decades. Reflecting this transformation, public opinion about the propriety of women serving in the armed forces has also shifted over time. In this paper, we review traditions that have fostered the exclusion of women from military service and explore how technological change and the nature of modern warfare will affect that tradition of exclusion. We consider some of the advantages and disadvantage of enlarging the proportion of women in the Navy. We also consider the implications of these changes on the traditional division of labor in the society at large.
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October 1, 1993
As part of CNA's reconstruction of Operation RESTORE HOPE, this paper examines the rules of engagement for U.S. Marine Corps and Army ground forces during the operation, and discusses eight issues surrounding their writing, implementation, and effects. The paper concludes with a discussion of the overall lessons learned from the experience. See also CRMs 93-96, 93-114, 93-126, 93-140, 93-148, and 93-152.
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October 1, 1993
Operation RESTORE HOPE, the December 1992 U.S. military intervention in Somalia, was a significant military operation that coincided with a massive relief effort. One aspect of the operation that was fairly new to many Marines there, and to our military as a whole, was the degree of interaction with workers from Humanitarian Relief Organizations (HROs). Although both the military and the HROs accomplished their missions in Somalia, relations between the two groups were sometimes strained. In future operations--in which the threat might be greater and closer cooperation necessary--military-HRO relations may need to be better. As part of the CNA RESTORE HOPE reconstruction project, this paper examines military-HRO relations in that operation. The paper draws on the RESTORE HOPE experience so that future commanders can better understand the complexities of military-HRO relations. In the paper, we review various aspects of the relationship, identify the causes of the problems between the groups, and suggest options that commanders may consider for improving relations in future operations. See also CRMs 93-96, 93-114, 93-120, 93-126, 93-148, and 93-152.
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September 1, 1993
Using a two-phase approach, the Future Russian Navy study -- commissioned by the Director of Naval Intelligence -- examined the individual factors that will compete with one another to drive the force posture and capabilities of the 21st-century Russian Navy. Phase I evaluated as discrete entities historical, economic, security, and foreign policy interests as well as politico-sociological and economic constraints. Phase II then evaluated these competing interests and constraints, and derived a range of potential force postures and capabilities for the Russian Navy of the year 2013. The result describes a Russian Navy dependent principally on the success or failure of Russian national economic reform.
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September 1, 1993
As part of the study Managing the Enlisted Marine Corps in the 1990s, CNA analyzed success patterns of Marines making lateral moves. Each of these Marines retrains in a primary military occupational specialty different from the original one. The Marine Corps currently has no basis for judging the success of Marines initiating lateral moves. Our analysis of historical data provides planners with information to help judge the efficiency of these moves. We will first describe the Marine Corps manpower planning and how lateral moves fit into this planning. We then consider the costs of selective reenlistment bonuses versus lateral moves. Finally, we provide statistical analysis of historical data on lateral moves. Our analysis of lateral moves focuses on the following considerations: (a) patterns of successful completion of a lateral move; (b) the promotion and attrition experience of Marines who have made lateral moves relative to their cohorts; and (c) experience in the Marine Corps compared with performance of occupation-related tasks.
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July 1, 1993

This paper considers the role of the United Nations (UN) in facilitating, sponsoring, coordinating, and/or executing multinational cooperation on the seas. It identifies and discusses nine potential UN naval missions and their supporting naval tasks. These are mission areas in which the UN has or may become involved, independent of the form of cooperation. It then analyzes four different options for organizing UN naval cooperation: UN authorization, UN designation, UN direction of designated national contingents, and UN standing naval forces. Finally, the paper suggests conditions under which particular combinations of mission and organizing options should be pursued, and proposes some courses of action independent of mission or organizing option. Appendixes discuss the UN system for collective security and provide historical lessons learned or precedents for each UN naval cooperation organizing option.

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July 1, 1993
Some activities performed by government employees are similar to those performed in the private sector. Government policy -- outlined in Office of Management Budget circular A-76 -- is to allow private sector companies to compete with government organizations for this work. The goal is to use competition to encourage efficiency -- whether the function is contracted out or not. The Navy's Commercial Activities (CA) program is responsible for implementing this competition program within the Navy. Over the last decade, the Navy has studied about 1,000 activities -- covering about 29,000 billets (both civilian and military). Due to changes in legislation, the Navy is not doing any CA studies at this time. In this research memorandum, we examine: (a) the savings achieved as a result of CA studies; (b) whether the initial savings diminished over time; and (c) the prospect for future studies.
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July 1, 1993
The Marine Corps recruits and screens about 2,000 officer candidates annually. Recruiting minority candidates who meet its stringent standards, however, is not easy. Recruiting qualified minorities is especially difficult because of stiff competition from other services, industry, government, and the academic arena. Consider these statistics: (1) of male college graduates in 1990-1991, five percent were African-Americans, and three percent were Hispanics; (2) only two percent of males with Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) scores meeting USMC standards were African-American, and four percent Hispanic. It is clear that the Marine Corps must recruit more than a proportionate share of the qualified minority pool. Can the Marine Corps improve the way it allocates recruiting goals and resources to take advantage of regional variations in race/ethnicity. Headquarters Marine Corps asked CNA to help with this problem as part of its study of Successful Recruiting and Training of Marine Corps Officers. In this study, we also explored the relationship between officer candidate characteristics and success in Officer Candidate School, commissioning, and The Basic School. In addition, we looked at officer characteristics and promotions to captain and major.
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June 1, 1993

The main objective of this study is to develop the cost-versus-readiness relationship for alternative aviation supply inventories (called AVCALs). This analysis will help the Navy develop future inventory policy by answering questions like: (1) what are the alternative supply support options and (2) what is th e expected loss in readiness when supply support costs are reduced.

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June 1, 1993
As the Navy shrinks, it is likely that the ratio of sea duty to shore duty will rise and advancement opportunities will fall for enlisted personnel. This research memorandum investigates the relationships of sea duty, advancement, and reenlistment at the end of the first term. We explore these relationships with a variety of statistical models while controlling for economic variables, personal characteristics, fiscal year, and rating group. With regard to sea duty, we support the evidence found in other studies: sea duty has a negative but small effect on retention for first-term sailors. For advancement, we are unable to separate an advancement effect independent of such variables as pay and ability. We do not conclude that advancement does not effect retention -- rather that pay and ability, which are closely linked to advancement, capture the main impact of advancement on retention.
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