Research for Crisis Response

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February 1, 1999
As part of a larger project for Commander in Chief, Pacific Fleet examining the ability of afloat naval forces to respond to disasters and other emergencies in the CINCPACFLT area of interest, this paper looks at some of the requirements for disaster relief operations. It examines what disasters are likely to occur in the area of interest, how these disasters evolve, what response is required, and who meets these requirements when the military does not show up. Almost every type of disaster occurs in CINCPACFLT's area of interest, ranging from natural disasters to complex emergencies. Disasters evolve along a well-known trajectory, and the paper looks at timelines for the various types. Requirements for disaster response can vary widely according to the type of disaster, but vary less between events of the same general type. Another consistent fact we find in examining disaster relief operations is the growing capability of the non-government and international communities to respond.
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March 1, 1995

Amid the debate over roles and missions in recent years, claims of land-based airpower's capacity to match the contributions of U.S. Navy aircraft carriers have been a prominent theme. As part of that argument, some land-based aviation advocates have argued that basing and other constraints have little relevance to the debate--that basing constraints have not prevented land-based airpower from contributing to U.S. military operations. This argument masks a far more complicated history of U.S. access to facilities and airspace in the midst of international incidents and crises. Land-based airpower has contributed, in some manner, to every significant U.S. military operation since World War II. But basing constraints have often made this contribution more difficult or, more important, have seriously limited the capabilities that land-based airpower could bring to contingency operations. In light of the potential confusion about this issue, this paper examines the history of limitations on land-based aviation activities during U.S. contingency operations.

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February 1, 1995
With the end of the Cold War and the emergence of a new era, many of the overarching concepts behind U.S. defense policy are open to questioning. In the Cold War, deterrence was perhaps the key concept. The thinking about deterrence--both theoretical and policy-related consideration--focused on nuclear deterrence issues. In the new era, deterrence remains a key issue but the focus turns to 'conventional' deterrence. Key associated concepts in this emerging new world order are compulsion and reassurance. This paper provides some perspectives on the role of naval forces in deterrence, compulsion, and reassurance in the post-Cold War era. In addition to a brief overview of some of the theoretical issues surrounding deterrence, this paper focuses on some concrete examples of U.S. Navy and Marine Corps actions in response to or amidst international crises over the past 40 years. It discusses the ways these actions might have compelled an opponent to stop or reverse some action, deterred a potential adversary from taking some action, and/or reassured an ally to take some type of action.
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October 1, 1994
The role of the news media as it affects decisions on U.S. military intervention (the 'CNN-effect) is the subject of increasing debate within the media and among foreign policy-makers and observers. This seminar report examines this new role of the media. It also discusses the media's view on world affairs and politics that may affect this role.
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July 1, 1994
This research memorandum summarizes recent Joint Task Force (JTF) operations. We reviewed the operations at the request of CINCLANTFLT to help the fleet determine its requirements for training Navy officers and staffs in JTF operations. The goal is to extract lessons learned that define high-leverage training topics.
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March 1, 1994
The post-Cold War national security strategy engages U.S. power in all its form to shape a more secure world. Overseas presence--operating forces forward to influence what foreign governments think and do--is the most important and challenging of the tasks this strategy assigns the Armed Forces. This paper looks at the political and strategic case for presence and discusses some of its costs and risks. It draws conclusions about: (1) what presence means in our use of the forces we have now; and (2) what forces to buy for the future. It also suggests ways to make presence operations more efficient and issues deserving study in that regard.
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July 1, 1993
The CNA Context of Military Intervention (CMI) Project was sponsored by the Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Plans, Policy, and Operation to help provide insight into the debate over the use of U.S. military forces in American foreign policy. This concept paper was prepared for participants in the CMI Seminar Series, which will examine this debate with prominent former members of the U.S. Government, along with experts from the military services, the media, and academia. The purpose of this paper is to define some of the issues and to provoke thought. Some case studies, which will be used as reference points in the seminars, are also outlined.
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July 1, 1993

This paper considers the role of the United Nations (UN) in facilitating, sponsoring, coordinating, and/or executing multinational cooperation on the seas. It identifies and discusses nine potential UN naval missions and their supporting naval tasks. These are mission areas in which the UN has or may become involved, independent of the form of cooperation. It then analyzes four different options for organizing UN naval cooperation: UN authorization, UN designation, UN direction of designated national contingents, and UN standing naval forces. Finally, the paper suggests conditions under which particular combinations of mission and organizing options should be pursued, and proposes some courses of action independent of mission or organizing option. Appendixes discuss the UN system for collective security and provide historical lessons learned or precedents for each UN naval cooperation organizing option.

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August 1, 1992
In the 15-year period of 1977 through 1991, U.S. military forces responded to international crises or incidents in 83 cases. This information memorandum presents key findings from historical data in three studies on U.S. military activity since World War II. It examines the questions of whether there is a baseline global demand for U.S. crisis response activity and what impact the Soviet collapse had on the level of U.S. activity. More specifically, the memorandum discusses the role of naval forces in U.S. crisis response activity, focusing on the steady frequency of naval responses over time, the important role played by carriers and the Marine Corps in those responses, the participation of naval forces in all cases involving terrorism, and the increasing concentration of naval crisis response activity in the Middle East during the 1980s.
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October 1, 1991

This research memorandum documents the events and discusses lessons learned from the non-combatant evacuation operation from the U.S. Embassy in Mogadishu, Somalia, in January 1991. During this operation, named 'EASTERN EXIT,' U.S. Navy and U.S. Marine Corps forces evacuated 281 people from 30 countries (including 8 Ambassadors and 39 Soviet citizens).

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