Research for Costs

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March 1, 1990
This paper presents a mathematical model for two purposes. First, it extends the theoretical analysis of annual contracting to the more general case of uncertainty as to the magnitude of year-two procurement, as opposed simply to its cancellation. The second is to assign parameter values having at least some empirical grounding to the Utgoff-Thaler model, thereby providing a basis for assessing quantitatively the consequences of the theoretical results for both annual and multiyear contracting.
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February 1, 1990
The Department of Defense is developing a computerized adaptive-testing version of the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB). This or some other version of the ASVAB may be enhanced by the addition of new, computerized subtests. A cost/benefit analysis has estimated a benefit of $450 million per year as the result of such enhancement. This paper questions the operational relevance of any such estimate. The paper describes ways in which the validation study of new tests needs to be expanded. It also discusses pros and cons of adaptive testing.
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March 1, 1989
A preliminary review is made of fees, enrollment loads, and program costs of Marine Corps child care centers. The funding of and participation in the centers and how changes in fee policies might affect program costs are examined.
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November 1, 1987
The last of three evaluations of the Targeted Enlistment Bonus (TEB) for Nuclear Field recruits is contained in this research memorandum. The TEB differs from previous enlistment bonuses by varying the bonus amounts according to the season a recruit begins active duty. Historically, Nuclear Field accessions have been characterized by a seasonal surge in the summer months, reflecting the presence of many Nuclear Field recruits for beginning service shortly after obtaining a high school diploma. The TEB is designed to assist recruiters in achieving a more level flow of accessions during the year. It was tested during an eighteen month period. For the evaluation, Nuclear Field recruits during this period are compared to those of previous years in terms of the phasing of accessions and enlistment contracts, and indicators of recruit quality. Savings associated with the TEB experiment are calculated, and the implications for potential changes in the TEB are drawn.
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August 1, 1987
The eight-county Allegheny Region of Pennsylvania is 84% forested and comprises one of the state's most valuable timbersheds. Much of this area is inaccessible to conventional logging equipment due to steep slopes, poor drainage, and high erodability. For this reason, there has been a recently growing interest in using cable yarders to harvest these areas. A computer simulation model has been developed to aid in investigating the feasibility of cable logging in this region. This paper explains the design of the model, discusses the field data collected, evaluates the model, and makes recommendations for further data acquisition and model refinement.
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June 1, 1987
This research memorandum describes the principal components of the Department of the Navy budget that relate to the conduct of Navy individual training. It defines and describes the content of the budget categories and details the dollar estimates and manpower levels associated with training for FY 1981 through FY 1986. It also explains the organizational responsibilities for the management of training resources as well as the conduct of the specific types of individual training.
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May 1, 1987
Drawing upon new data from the Navy's enlisted force, this study estimates the effect on military reenlistment rates of several major policy variables: eligibility for the Vietnam-era G.I. Bill, draft-pressure at the original enlistment point, and the amount of formal training given to enlistees in their first term. These specific effects are all shown to be substantially adverse, even after statistic controls have been established for other key determinants of military retention.
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April 1, 1987
An evaluation of current Navy practices for assessing the cost effects of production competition in programs using dual production sources is presented. Weapon system cost analysis practices are presented first as a baseline, followed by discussion of particular methods used when two production sources are expected. The scope of the evaluation was limited to cost analysis practices at the headquarters level in the three hardware systems commands and at what is now the Naval Center for Cost Analysis.
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February 1, 1987
Estimates of the costs of the tanker portion of the Ready Reserve Force (RRF) from 1987 to 1995 are provided. These estimates show what it would cost if the Navy chose to fill the entire shortfall of U.S.-owned militarily useful tankers by building up the RRF. The study does not recommend this course of action, but merely establishes what the Navy's dollar costs are likely to be in the years ahead. An important finding is that the annual costs of an RRF of that size would substantially exceed budgeted funds as reflected in the latest Five Year Defense Plan. Without additional funding of about $200 million or more per year over the next nine years, the tanker RRF probably would not be able to accomplish the Navy's fuel-delivery mission. Even with such an infusion of funds the RRF may not be workable, because adequate supplies of U.S. merchant sailors and U.S. shipyards may not be available.
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February 1, 1987
This research memorandum is the final report on a study of the factors that affect the costs of training Navy personnel. It identifies the relationship between students undergoing specialized skill training and the dominant operating costs of conducting that training.
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