Research for Costs

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May 1, 1993
Russian military specialists have argued that Russia will need a strong blue-water naval capability to protect her large merchant fleet, among other reasons. In this paper, we conclude that, in a decade, Russia will likely have a merchant fleet one-third to one-half of the size of the Soviet 1991 merchant fleet. Without a significant increase in capital investment, rapidly aging ships and market-based operational expenses promise to greatly reduce Russia's share of the once large Soviet merchant fleet. This information memorandum is one of a series of analyses produced in response to a request by the Director of Naval Intelligence that would define the probable character of the future Soviet or Russian Navy.
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May 1, 1993
The Department of Defense Appropriations Act of 1992 directed the Secretary of the Navy to study 'the costs of improving the Port of Haifa, Israel, and facilities in the immediate vicinity, to accommodate the full complement of services required for the maintenance, repair and associated tasks needed to support a carrier battle group.' The Secretary of the Navy tasked the Center for Naval Analyses to conduct the study. He asked that we address the needs of rotationally deployed naval forces in the U.S. Sixth Fleet. We did not address homeporting in Haifa. We assumed that the Navy would continue to maintain self-sufficiency of its deployed forces. Providing support to visiting ships can be thought of in two dimensions: (1) the level of services each ship will demand; and (2) the number of ships that will simultaneously make such demands. Even more complicating is the fact that different types of ships request different levels and types of service. To cover the range of needs the port of Haifa may encounter in the future, we examined different levels of demand and support. Our analysis examines requirements generated by five notional task groups, comprising various numbers and types of ships. For each task group, we also analyze different degrees of support and provide assessments of the marginal benefits of a range of investment levels. This paper presents our research on logistics issues relevant to ship visits to Haifa and support of fleet operations in the general vicinity of Israel. We also address the flow
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May 1, 1993
The Department of Defense Appropriations Act of 1992 directed the Secretary of the Navy to study 'the costs of improving the Port of Haifa, Israel, and facilities in the immediate vicinity, to accommodate the full complement of services required for the maintenance, repair, and associated tasks needed to support a carrier battle group.' The Secretary of the Navy asked the Center for Naval Analyses to conduct the study. He asked that we address the needs of rotationally deployed naval forces in the U.S. Sixth Fleet. We did not address homeporting in Haifa. We assumed that the Navy would continue to maintain self-sufficiency of its deployed forces. The study addresses: (1) the needs of the Sixth Fleet, including carrier battle groups when they operate or visit ports in the eastern Mediterranean; (2) Haifa's capabilities to meet the Fleet's support demands; and (3) upgrades to services that would improve overall support to the Fleet. This report summarizes our findings and conclusions. We provide the data and analysis that support these conclusions in three separate documents, each corresponding to a different category of support -- harbor services, ship maintenance, and logistics support. See also 27 930090.10 - 27 930092.10.
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May 1, 1993
The Department of Defense Appropriations Act of 1992 directed the Secretary of the Navy to study 'the costs of improving the Port of Haifa, Israel, and facilities in the immediate vicinity, to accommodate the full complement of services required for the maintenance, repairs, and associated tasks needed to support a carrier battle group.' The Secretary of the Navy tasked the Center for Naval Analyses to conduct the study. He asked that we address rotationally deployed naval forces to the U.S. Sixth Fleet. We did not address homeporting in Haifa. We assumed that the Navy would continue to maintain its self-sufficiency of deployed forces. We have published the results of our study in separate documents -- one each on harbor services, ship maintenance, and logistics support, plus a summary report. This research memorandum addresses the harbor services portion of the support provided to ships visiting Haifa. Our work was supported by the Naval Facilities Engineering Command, Atlantic Division. See also 27 930089.10 - 27 930092.10.
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April 1, 1993
The Gulf War was an impressive demonstration of air power in action. Coalition air forces seized control of the air in the first hours, then devastated military facilities in Iraq and Iraqi forces in the field -- paving the way for the remarkable 100-hour victory by coalition ground forces. Airpower did not win the war by itself, but it was the foundation for projecting U.S. military power and overcoming numerical disadvantages on the ground. Airpower is likely to play a similar key role in the next major regional conflict. Thus, the U.S. must maintain its superiority in airpower despite rising costs and declining budgets. The issues are complex and controversial, but ignoring issues will not make them go away. This paper discusses policy and concept issues that need debate and examines two broad strategies for dealing with affordability problems.
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November 1, 1992
This paper presents and applies a methodology for estimating the cost of recruiting individuals with alternative distributions of Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) scores. The methodology takes account of the key institutional features of the recruiting process, including recruiter time allocation and procedural guidelines. The method is used to estimate the costs of different recruit-aptitude distributions, using data on applicants and accessions for all of the services.
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October 1, 1992
This research memorandum presents three appendixes that support, and expand on, material in CNA Research Memorandum 92-91, dated July 1992. Appendix A summarizes available information on alternative fuel-vehicle emissions. Appendix B describes several hypothetical strategies that the Department of Navy might use in distributing alternative fuel-vehicles among its facilities. Finally, Appendix C describes the calculation of the cost estimates presented in CNA Research Memorandum 92-91 and includes additional tables and figures comparing the cost of vehicles powered by compressed natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas, and a blend of 85 percent methanol and 15 percent gasoline (M-85).
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July 1, 1992
Laws and regulations taking effect over the next several years will determine the types of administrative vehicles the Department of the Navy (DON) must buy. Of most concern are a recent Executive Order, which requires purchasing vehicles that operate on nonpetroleum fuels, and the Clean Air Act, which requires fleet owners to purchase low emission vehicles for use in certain parts of the country. CNA analyzed the options available to DON for meeting these requirements. The results tend to favor one alternative fuel for vehicles held for two or three years and different fuels for vehicles held for more than eight years. These results are sensitive to changes in fuel prices and other vehicle costs. Because current data are limited and the alternative-fuel-vehicle industry is undergoing rapid change, we recommend that DON not commit to a single technology until more is known about the on-road performance and costs of all the choices. Appendixes covering emissions, DON fleet composition and distribution, and cost comparisons are published separately as CNA Research Memorandum 92-92.
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July 1, 1990
This paper, undertaken as part of CNA's Quo Vadis II project, examines alternative statistical models for the cumulative distribution of cost and time of Navy Research and Development (R&D) projects.
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July 1, 1990
This research memorandum presents and applies a methodology for estimating the cost of recruiting individuals with alternative distributions of Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) scores. The methodology takes account of the key institutional features of the recruiting process, including recruiter time allocation and procedural guidelines. The method is used to estimate the costs of different recruit-aptitude distributions, using data on applicants and accessions for all of the services.
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