Research for Cost Analyses

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December 1, 1993
The focus of this paper, which draws liberally from an earlier CNA paper that also employed Monte Carlo methods, is on the predictive accuracy of cost-estimating relationships whose parameters are estimated by both ordinary least squares regression and non-linear least squares, first when the error structure is known to be multiplicative and then when it is known to be additive. The multi-predictor model that served as the basis of the Monte Carlo simulations is representative of models that cost analysts frequently deal with. Results suggest that predictions based on non-linear least squares are substantially better than those based on ordinary least squares when the errors are additive, and are only slightly inferior when the error term is multiplicative.
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June 1, 1993
This paper reports on a Monte Carlo study of the accuracy of each estimation method under correct and incorrect error specifications. The multi-predictor model that serves as the basis of the study is representative of models with which cost analysts frequently deal. Results suggest that ordinary least squares, applied to the logs of the variables, may be the preferred method under either specification. This finding, however, is applicable strictly to the issue of parameter estimation. Accuracy of cost prediction requires further analysis.
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December 1, 1992
In early August 1992, the Assistant Chief of Naval Operations (Surface Warfare) asked the Center for Naval Analyses to conduct a study on homeport options for collocation of Mine Countermeasures (MCM) forces. This report documents the findings of the study. The MCM homeport issue dates back to May 1991 when the Navy announced a plan for consolidating MCM ships at Ingleside, Texas. That first step grew into a plan for consolidating not just ships, but headquarters staff, training activities, and possibly explosive ordnance disposal and air MCM forces as well.
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January 1, 1992
The main objective of this study is to identify an improved method for allocating Marine Corps recruiter support funds to the districts. This research memorandum describes a way to account for variation in the average support cost across the Marine Corps recruiting districts. Using FY 1989 and 1990 data, certain variables are found to explain recruiting station support funding costs. Model estimates are made of FY 1992 district support funding requirements. In addition, estimates are made of support cost savings from proposed station consolidations.
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April 1, 1991
The Job Performance Measurement project will attempt to measure the first-term costs and performance of enlisted Marines in several occupations. The primary types of costs are those incurred to recruit, train, and pay personnel. This paper focuses on training costs. It provides a discussion on the concept of training costs and some of the types of training data available for enlisted Marines. It also presents estimates of the costs per student for courses needed for the Military Occupational Specialties studied in the project.
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August 1, 1990
The Medical Expense and Performance Reporting System (MEPRS) contains detailed cost and workload data for Navy Medical Treatment Facilities (MTFs). This memorandum describes some of the limitations of MEPRS data for calculating cost per admission by medical specialty. Some of these limitations stem from the organization of MEPRS data by functional work centers; others reflect problems in the collection of MEPRS data.
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May 1, 1990
This research memorandum evaluates the use of Video Teletraining (VTT) to deliver Navy F-school instruction to students at remote sites. Using data collected from a four-site, fully interactive audio-video network, the analysis focuses on system utilization, training effectiveness, downtime, and savings to the Navy.
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April 1, 1987
An evaluation of current Navy practices for assessing the cost effects of production competition in programs using dual production sources is presented. Weapon system cost analysis practices are presented first as a baseline, followed by discussion of particular methods used when two production sources are expected. The scope of the evaluation was limited to cost analysis practices at the headquarters level in the three hardware systems commands and at what is now the Naval Center for Cost Analysis.
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February 1, 1987
Because savings are usually expected when responsibilities are transferred from Active to Reserve units, Congress directed the services in 1984 to prepare annual reports outlining how they would provide the Reserve with new missions, more modern equipment, and greater integration with the active forces. The purpose of the Active/Reserve Force Mix Study was to provide analytical assistance to the Navy in preparing its annual report. This research memorandum summarizes the analyses conducted for the study. The availability of personnel to man missions being transferred to the Reserve forces is studied. In particular, this paper examines which homeports will be most able to support the Naval Reserve Force, what determines whether Navy veterans will affiliate with the Selected Reserves, and what the supply will be of aviation officers leaving active duty. Better techniques for estimating the cost savings of Reserve units are developed, and the operating and support costs of aviation units, especially personnel costs, are discussed.
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February 1, 1987
Estimates of the costs of the tanker portion of the Ready Reserve Force (RRF) from 1987 to 1995 are provided. These estimates show what it would cost if the Navy chose to fill the entire shortfall of U.S.-owned militarily useful tankers by building up the RRF. The study does not recommend this course of action, but merely establishes what the Navy's dollar costs are likely to be in the years ahead. An important finding is that the annual costs of an RRF of that size would substantially exceed budgeted funds as reflected in the latest Five Year Defense Plan. Without additional funding of about $200 million or more per year over the next nine years, the tanker RRF probably would not be able to accomplish the Navy's fuel-delivery mission. Even with such an infusion of funds the RRF may not be workable, because adequate supplies of U.S. merchant sailors and U.S. shipyards may not be available.
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