Research for Convoys

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Model of Anti-Convoy Effectiveness (MACE) - a Computer Model for Anti-Shipping Wars
June 1, 1974
A computer model was developed to aid in studying naval war scenarios in which anti-shipping operations are the main consideration. Performance of the forces involved is specified by probabilities of carrying out assigned missions, such as penetrating escort screens and attacking convoyed shipping. The model calculates expected values of the losses suffered by these forces. The model programming and inputs are designed to cover a wide range of problems.
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ANTISUBMARINE WARFARE IN WORLD WAR II
June 1, 1974
This report on Antisubmarine Warfare (ASW) represents a compromise between two major aims, to produce a unified summary of the events and problems of the antisubmarine war on the one hand, and to illustrate the scientific evaluation of naval operations on the other. The approach is fundamentally historical on both accounts.
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EFFECT ON U-BOAT PERFORMANCE OF INTELLIGENCE OBTAINED FROM DECRYPTION OF ALLIED COMMUNICATIONS
April 1, 1954
Examination of the War Diary of the German Communication Submarines (ComSubs) has made it possible to estimate the character and extent of intelligence obtained by the decryption of Allied radio messages pertaining to convoy operations in the North Atlantic during World War II, and to determine the effect of such intelligence on the capability of the U-Boats to contact convoys and sink ships. It is estimated that the availability of timely usable decryption intelligence increased the contact rate twofold over that which they would have obtained without it; probably over 60 sinkings in excess of the expected number if they had been deprived of decryption intelligence. These calculations help in estimating a valid measure of effectiveness of current and future submarines in anti-convoy operations when decryption intelligence is not available.
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