Research for Conflicts

With the end of the Cold War and the emergence of a new era, many of the overarching concepts behind U.S. defense policy are open to questioning. In the Cold War, deterrence was perhaps the key concept. The thinking about deterrence--both theoretical and policy-related consideration--focused on nuclear deterrence issues. In the new era, deterrence remains a key issue but the focus turns to 'conventional' deterrence. Key associated concepts in this emerging new world order are compulsion and reassurance. This paper provides some perspectives on the role of naval forces in deterrence, compulsion, and reassurance in the post-Cold War era. In addition to a brief overview of some of the theoretical issues surrounding deterrence, this paper focuses on some concrete examples of U.S. Navy and Marine Corps actions in response to or amidst international crises over the past 40 years. It discusses the ways these actions might have compelled an opponent to stop or reverse some action, deterred a potential adversary from taking some action, and/or reassured an ally to take some type of action.

The 1990 CNA Sea Power Forum panel, 'Beyond Afghanistan: Changing Soviet Perspectives on Regional Conflicts,' focused on how the war in Afghanistan has affected Soviet policy on involvement in regional conflicts. This summary documents the Soviet commentators' own perceptions and analyses of the lessons learned and experiences gained in Afghanistan. This emphasis is intended to provide insight into how the Soviet Union might respond to regional conflicts in the future.

Since the end of World War II, the U.S. Navy has played a major role in at least 187 U.S. responses to international incidents and crises. This research memorandum provides a summary of these Navy crisis management operations.

Three hundred eighty conflicts initiated during the years 1946-1964 are analysed. The analysis of recent conflicts has three major advantages: (1) to confirm or counter assumptions about limited warfare situations in the period 1946-1964 to provide greater validity in predicting such situations in the future; (2) to identify the major variables involved in the various kinds of recent conflicts so that these variables will be used appropriately in the analysis of future conflicts of a similar type; and (3) to provide a data base from which important implications about the nature of recent conflicts may be derived so that effective processes of deterrence and control may be perceived for future application.