Research for Computer Simulations

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COUNTERFORCE EFFECTIVENESS, A COMPARISON OF THE TSIPIS K MEASURE AND A COMPUTER SIMULATION
February 1, 1981
The data used by Robert Leggett in projecting U.S. and Soviet counterforce effectiveness through the 1980s is reexamined using AEM, a computer simulation of strategic war. The counterforce effectiveness of the U.S. and Soviet strategic forces, as measured by the number of surviving intercontinental ballistic missiles, does not confirm Leggett and Tsipis' findings.
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EXPERIMENTAL VALIDATION OF PROBABILITY PREDICTIONS
September 1, 1976
The purpose of this paper is to derive the methodology for using classical test statistics in the validation of simulation models (such as probability of a particular occurrence) using a small, varied data base.
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CNA COMPUTER PROGRAM 19-69, WEAPON PATTERN EFFECTIVENESS III
June 1, 1974
A Monte Carlo simulation program has been written in FORTRAN to compute hit probabilities of a pattern of weapons against a maneuvering target. The aimpoint is specified, and a bivariate normal aiming error is assumed for the weapon pattern; individual weapons in the pattern are assumed to have bivariate normal (ballistic) dispersion errors. Target initial velocity, time spent in a straight leg, turning radius, and time spent in the turn are specified, and a normal distribution are included. Flow charts, program listing, and sample inputs and outputs are provided.
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SENSITIVITY TESTS ON SLAT COMPUTER SIMULATIONS USING EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN
June 1, 1974
Experimental designs are proven to be just as useful in studying the interrelations between variables in computer simulations as they have been in agriculture and industry. This paper demonstrates that the statistical experimental design technique aids the analysis of complex simulation by efficient selection of the computer runs to be made and thereby saves computer time. Further the analysis is more complete, showing that the variables act jointly, and measures the goodness of fit of predicted values. As an example, the sensitivity tests on changes in air sortie effectiveness on a land campaign are discussed. The techniques, terminology and calculation methods with a bibliography are discussed in an appendix for those who wish to learn more about the technique.
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AIR-TO-GROUND GUNNERY SIMULATION, CNA COMPUTER PROGRAM 6-70 (PROGRAM AIRTOGR)
June 1, 1974
A computer program employing a Monte Carlo simulation is presented to determine the probability of destroying a rectangular target with air-to-ground gunnery. The effect of correlation of successive aim points is considered, and bivariate normal aiming error and ballistic dispersion are assumed. Included in the report are a flow chart, a listing of the FORTRAN program, and a sample program.
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