Research for Computer Simulations

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Game-Based Experimentation for Research in Command and Control and Shared Situational Awareness
November 1, 2005
The Naval War College (NWC) through its Warfare Analysis and Research Department (WARD)-is pursuing a program of research into designing militarily relevant and scientifically valid experiments to investigate shared situational awareness (SSA) in the evolving environment of U.S. Joint command and control (C2). One aspect of this research builds on the foundation of reproducible results obtained from CNA's prior work in the field of measuring SSA in a wargaming environment. This research memorandum documents the support CNA provided to the NWC-WARD for an experiment conducted in the spring of 2002. This experiment took the form of a series of games played by teams from the U.S. Naval Academy, the U.S. Air Force Academy, and the Naval War College. The test-bed was the internet-based game SCUDHunt, developed earlier by CNA and ThoughtLink Inc. for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency DARPA). In this simple yet elegant game, players take the roles of sensor asset managers and attempt to deploy their sensors to search a small, gridded map for hidden "SCUD" launchers. Each sensor has different characteristics of coverage and reliability. To play effectively, the players must work together, sharing information and developing their shared situational awareness in order to find the SCUDs and make accurate strike recommendations.
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SimNavy Phase 1
June 1, 1999
This paper summarizes phase 1 development of an agent-based interactive game called SimNavy. The purpose of the game is to teach users through simulated experience how best to manage the Navy's resources in order to reach operational objectives. This paper provides a description of the SimNavy concept and the role CNA could play in its future development.
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Irreducible Semi-Autonomous Adaptive Combat (ISAAC): An Artificial - Life Approach to Land Warfare
August 1, 1997
This study is a follow-on effort to a recently completed project, sponsored by the Commanding General, Marine Corps Combat Development Command, that assessed the general applicability of the new sciences to land warfare. 'New Sciences' is a catch-all phrase that refers to the tools and methodologies used in nonlinear dynamics and complex systems theory to study physical systems that exhibit a 'complicated dynamics.' CNA is currently developing a multiagent-based simulation of notional combat called ISAAC (Irreducible Semi-Autonomous Adaptive Combat), a preliminary version of which is described in this report. ISAAC takes a bottom-up, synthesist approach to the modeling of combat, vice the more traditional top-down, or reductionist approach.
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Wartime Medical Requirements Models: A Comparison of MPM, MEPES, and LPX-MED
October 1, 1996
The end of the Cold War has led to a major reexamination of the requirements fir medical personnel and other resources necessary to care for Department of Defense (DoD) beneficiaries. Despite large numbers of peacetime beneficiaries, the primary need for medical resources remains the wartime mission. During the Cold War, the requirement for wartime medical providers was high and could easily justify large numbers of active duty personnel. Today's defense guidance is based on fighting two major regional contingencies (MRCs), and the required number of medical providers has fallen sharply. Determining the number and types of medical resources needed to treat casualties of future conflicts is an important and complicated issue. To help shed light on the process of determining wartime medical requirements, N-931 asked CNA to examine the methods and models that are currently in use or may be used in the near future. The current process is in flux. The models used today are being changed. The use of one model was discontinued recently when the Joint Staff changed to a new command-and-control system. The Joint Staff has proposed a replacement, but the new model is still being developed and there is some concern about its adequacy in determining service medical requirements. In this memorandum, we examine the current and proposed theater-level requirements models.
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Land Warfare and Complexity, Part II: An Assessment of the Applicability of Nonlinear Dynanics and Complex Systems Theory to the Study of Land Warfare
July 1, 1996
The Commanding General, Marine Corps Combat Development Command (MCCDC) asked the Center for Naval Analyses to assess the general applicability of the new science to land warfare. 'New Sciences' is a catch-all phrase that refers to the tools and methodologies used in nonlinear dynamics and complex systems theory to study physical dynamical systems exhibiting a 'complicated dynamics.' This report concludes that the concepts, ideas, theories, tools and general methodologies of nonlinear dynamics and complex systems theory show enormous, almost unlimited, potential for not just providing better solutions for certain existing problems of land combat, but for fundamentally altering our general understanding of the basic processes of war, at all levels. Indeed, the new sciences' greatest legacy may, in the end, prove to be not just a set of creative answers to old questions but and entirely new set of questions to be asked of what really happens on the battlefield. The central thesis of this paper is that land combat is a complex adaptive system. That is to say, that land combat is essentially a nonlinear dynamical system composed of many interacting semi-autonomous and hierarchically organized agents continuously adapting to a changing environment. See also CIM 461.10.
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CASS Assessment: Future Requirements for Aircraft Carriers
September 1, 1995
The Consolidated Automated Support System (CASS) is a computerized Automatic Test Equipment (ATE) system that is currently being fielded by the Department of the Navy. Over the next several years, CASS will replace many existing ATE systems and help the Navy standardize test and training procedures. The Director of the Navy's Air Warfare Division (N88) and the Support Equipment Office (PMA-260) asked CNA to review the Navy's current plans for CASS implementation within the fleet. Among other things, these plans call for the phased integration of CASS into carrier Aircraft Intermediate Maintenance Departments (AIMDs). This paper is part of our workload assessment of these plans for carrier AIMDs. Our sponsors wanted answers to two questions: (1) how many (total) CASS stations do carrier AIMDs need?; and (2) more specifically, how many of each type of CASS do they need? In a previous analysis, we explored these questions for CASS support of existing weapons systems only. In this paper, we expand on that analysis by including CASS support of emerging weapons systems as well.
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Review of the Integrated Theater Engagement Model (ITEM)
July 1, 1994
The Assessment Division (N81) asked CNA to review the Integrated Theater Engagement Model (ITEM), version 5.2.3--a computer model built by SAIC. CNA agreed to conduct a review of ITEM to support a level-2 validation, verification, and accreditation (VV&A) as defined by the draft OPNAV instruction. ITEM is an interactive computer simulation providing integrated air, land, and naval warfare engagement modules for the analysis of joint force operations in theater-level campaigns.
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Sensitivity Analysis of MSC MOPEX Model
March 1, 1990
This research memorandum summarizes the plan and results of a sensitivity analysis of the Military Sealift Command (MSC) MOPEX model. The proposed sensitivity analysis methodology is general in nature and can be used by MSC to further test the model for other parameters or for other OPLANS. The analysis and design computer programs are listed in the appendixes for reference.
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Methodology of an Event-Driven Monte Carlo Missile Simulation
November 1, 1989
This paper describes the methodology used by the Center for Naval Analyses to develop a Monte Carlo missile simulation that computes probabilities of target acquisition and distributions of missile arrival times. The simulation accounts for numerous missile and target uncertainties. Coordinated strikes are simulated by modeling multiple missiles from multiple launch points firing on a group of targets. Tactical applications of the simulation required that it be somputationally efficient. This led to an event-driven time advancement scheme.
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Two Consequences of Improving a Test Battery
October 1, 1988
Replacement of a paper-pencil test battery with a computerized adaptive version is likely to increase reliabilities of the subtests. This leads to an increase in the variances of composite scores, and to lower mean scores for subgroups whose average scores are already below those of the general population. These results are illustrated with a computer simulation.
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