Research for Computer Programs

This research contribution analyzes the problem of ordnance acquisition when the targets to be attacked are uncertain. It introduces the use of a utility function to evaluate the outcome of the attack process. Two models of the attack process are considered: The first assumes that the random target vector is attacked simultaneously with the available weapons. The second is a Sequential-Attack Model (SEAM) in which targets appear one at a time and the attack process continues as long as the current target can be attacked. The expected utility for a mix of weapons for the Simultaneous-Attack Model (SIAM) is computed as the weighted average of the expected utility of the mix of weapons against each target vector. The expected value for the SEAM is estimated by using a simulation of the attack process. It is argued that older methods of selecting weapons are biased towards special-purpose weapons and that the SIAM and SEAM models are not subjected to this deficiency. Furthermore, in spite of being the more complicated model, the SEAM approach appears more realistic in the way that it models that attack process. An operational example is used to illustrate the problem and the SEAM approach.

This paper describes the procedures followed to create the Navy Comprehensive Compensation and Supply Study requirements. The report also includes the computer program which was used to determine these requirements.

This paper reviews, from the U.S. point of view, the approach usually taken in analyzing the acoustic detection process, and presents some methods that are used to check whether our descriptions bear any resemblance to what actually happens.

This Research Contribution describes a methodology for assessing enemy ability to trail friendly ships at sea. It consists of four parts. The first part treats the search for a lost quarry by shipborne helicopter or long-range reconnaissance aircraft. The second describes a Markov model yielding the fraction of time the ship is free of trail. The third part estimates enemy aircraft requirements to achieve specific search results. The last part presents and documents an APL program, TRAIL, that performs all required calculations.