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A Concise User's Guide to ISAAC-FL: ISAAC's Mission-Fitness Landscape Mapper Program
September 1, 1997
ISAAC (Irreducible Semi-Autonomous Adaptive Combat) is a simple multiagent-based 'toy model' of land combat design to illustrate how certain aspects of land combat can be viewed as emergent phenomena resulting from the collective, nonlinear, decentralized interactions among notional combatants. ISAAC takes a bottom-up, synthesist approach to the modeling of combat, vice the more traditional top-down, reductionist approach, and represents a first step toward developing a complex systems theoretic analyst's toolbox for identifying, exploring, and possibly exploiting emergent collective patterns of behavior on the battlefield. This model was developed as part of a recently completed project, sponsored by the Marine Corps Combat Development Command, that assessed the general applicability of 'complex systems theory.' The focus of this brief is a stand-alone Mission-Fitness Landscape Mapper that uses the core engine to 'map-out' the behavior over a user-defined d-dimensional slice of ISAAC's total N-dimensional phase-space.
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Procedures and Software for Assessing Uncertainty in Cost Estimates
June 1, 1995
With extensive literature on the treatment of uncertainty in cost estimates, and because several uncertainty software packages are now available, the Naval Center for Cost Analysis asked the Center for Naval Analyses to conduct a study with the objective of evaluating the procedures and software that it now employs. This report begins with a discussion of introductory analytical issues and then focuses on the software packages that were evaluated. Additional analytical questions are addressed in connection with those evaluations.
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Elementary and Advanced Computer Projects for the Physics Classroom and Laboratory
December 1, 1992
A series of computer based student research projects and programs for use in the Physics classroom and laboratory is described. The commercial programs are SPF/PC, Microsoft Word, T3, Symphony, Mathematica, and FORTRAN. The author's programs assist data analysis in particular laboratory experiments and make use of the Monte Carlo and other numerical techniques in computer simulation and instruction. The one-dimensional ISING model is presented as a good example of the application of both analytical and simulation techniques in Physics. The consistent use of this project-based teaching approach in a college Physics program enhances the students' education and interest.
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Computing AFQT Scores From Historical Data
August 1, 1992
The Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) serves as an initial screen for military selection. AFQT scores must accurately reflect the quality of recruits who enter the services and must maintain the same meaning and interpretation over time. Unfortunately, several changes in the AFQT and other problems make such historical computations and score interpretations difficult. This research memorandum details these past problems and presents solutions that will allow for the proper computation of current AFQT scores from historical databases.
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Approximations for Three Statistical Functions
April 1, 1990
Statistical work connected with the computerized adaptive testing version of the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery often involves the density and cumulative functions of the normal distribution, and the logistic function. In long, iterative calculations, computation of these functions can be time consuming. This research memorandum presents piecewise linear and cubic approximations for the normal cumulative distribution function, the logistic function, and the normal density function. The approximations are as accurate as library functions, and much faster in computing speed.
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Sensitivity Analysis of MSC MOPEX Model
March 1, 1990
This research memorandum summarizes the plan and results of a sensitivity analysis of the Military Sealift Command (MSC) MOPEX model. The proposed sensitivity analysis methodology is general in nature and can be used by MSC to further test the model for other parameters or for other OPLANS. The analysis and design computer programs are listed in the appendixes for reference.
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Small and Great Circle Routines
July 1, 1989
This information manual documents routines in the CNA mapping software library that calculate the points of small and great circles on the earth. The equations upon which the routines are based are described and a user's walk-through of the programs is given.
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Bayesian Estimation of n in a Binomial Distribution
October 1, 1987
A method has been developed to estimate the total number of trials, 'n', from a Bayesian perspective when the probability of success, 'p', is either known or unknown. The prior distribution for 'n' is assumed to be the discrete uniform distribution. In the case when 'p' is unknown, 'p' is assumed to have a beta prior distribution. The estimate for 'n' is then the mode of the posterior distribution. Additionally, guidelines for selecting shape parameters for the beta distributions are discussed.
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Confidence Interval for Parameter n in a Binomial Distribution
January 1, 1987
A simple procedure to approximate a confidence interval for the parameter n in a binomial distribution is presented in this research memorandum. A simulation procedure to verify the coverage of confidence intervals is presented in appendix A. An interactive computer program is included in appendix B. The program is written in the FORTRAN language, which is readily available in most computing environments. Tables with 90 percent and 95 percent confidence coefficients are included in appendix C.
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Effects of Using Subtest Standard Scores in Calculating AFQT Percentile Scores
May 1, 1986
The Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) is currently constructed from a sum of subtest raw scores converted to percentile scores. This paper examines advantages and disadvantages of constructing AFQT percentile scores from sums of subtest standard scores.
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