Research for Computer Models

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COUNTERFORCE EFFECTIVENESS, A COMPARISON OF THE TSIPIS K MEASURE AND A COMPUTER SIMULATION
February 1, 1981
The data used by Robert Leggett in projecting U.S. and Soviet counterforce effectiveness through the 1980s is reexamined using AEM, a computer simulation of strategic war. The counterforce effectiveness of the U.S. and Soviet strategic forces, as measured by the number of surviving intercontinental ballistic missiles, does not confirm Leggett and Tsipis' findings.
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RELATING RESOURCES TO READINESS
September 1, 1980
This study examines the feasibility of developing a quantitative resource to readiness model. A hierarchy for potential definitions of readiness is presented and the conceptual flow of resources into this hierarchy is illustrated. Existing data systems and models are surveyed, and their constraint on a comprehensive model's development is discussed. Recommendations are made for funding and managing future resource to readiness research.
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THE ENLISTED REQUIREMENTS PLANNER (ENREP)
January 1, 1980
ENREP projects enlisted manpower requirements by rating and paygrade for any given set of ship and aircraft force levels for the 15 years covered by the POM and EPA. It adds the dimension of quality of personnel to projections of requirements and can be used to assess the effects of alternative force mixes and manning policies on requirements. ENREP draws figures for ship and aircraft forces and their corresponding manning factors from the Navy Resource Model (NARM), and a normalized distribution of ratings and paygrades from Enlisted Billet File. The user can override these inputs and moreover change the assumptions of the projection.
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THE EXPANDED SEA SHORE ROTATION MODEL
October 1, 1979
This guide describes a dynamic model which simulates personnel flows in a Navy detailing community. Using historical accessions, continuation rates and promotion probabilities, the model projects an initial inventory to future periods. In each projection period the historical data can be updated to reflect posible changes. Sea/shore rotation patterns can be altered to produce a desired personnel distribution between sea, shore and neutral duty. All computer programs are listed, and some flow charts are provided.
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AGGREGATE SEA/SHORE ROTATION MODEL (MOSES)
August 1, 1979
This guide describes a model of the relations between lengths of sea and shore tours, continuation behavior of personnel, and the numbers of first-term and career personnel at sea and ashore. Equations are developed to represent sea/shore rotation systems in which the number of persons in each of these four groups remains the same. This mathematical representation (developed further in CNA Professional Paper 256) was programmed for the computer, and the use and operations of the computer routine, MOSES, are treated here. Listing and flowcharts of the main routine and subroutines are included.
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CALCULATING SAMPLE SIZE REQUIREMENTS FOR MILITARY UNIT INSPECTIONS
July 1, 1979
Computer programs for calculating sample size requirements are presented and illustrated. Given the desired significance level and the desired probability that the sample will achieve that level, sample size requirements are calculated for determining that a unit rating: exceeds a criterion on level (with replacement); is less than a criterion level (with replacement); is between two criterion levels (with replacement); exceeds a criterion level (without replacement). The last calculation is done exactly (with the hypergeometric distribution) and also with a normal approximation. In all cases, the required sample size is calculated as a function of the true unit rating.
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FORECASTING OUTCOMES OF MULTILATERAL NEGOTIATIONS, COMPUTER PROGRAMS, VOLUME I, GUIDE FOR USERS
December 1, 1978
The present research contribution is a companion publication to CNA Research Contribution 291, which describes the methodology developed and used by the Law of the Sea Study to forecast the outcomes of multilateral negotiations on issues in law of the sea. All of the mathematical models and most of the techniques were programmed for the computer, and it is this system of computer programs that is treated in this research contribution. Volume I directs the prospective user in their execution. Volume II describes their logic and dimensioned variables for the programmer and specifies the changes that must be made throughout the system when any program is changed.
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USERS GUIDE TO THE REPORT GENERATOR FOR THE NAVY RESOURCE MODEL
December 1, 1978
The Report Generator is a highly generalized information-extracting and report-formatting computer routine. Through a sophisticated command language and system of dictionaries, it can report out information in countless formats and degrees of detail. The description of the Report Generator in this users' guide is for the dictionaries and data files used in the Navy Resource Model (NARM), at CNA. However, it is possible for the reader to apply the Report Generator to his own management information system by creating his own dictionaries for his own data tapes. How to create dictionaries is described in this guide.
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PENNSYLVANIA CONTINUOUS WAGE AND BENEFIT HISTORY CODEBOOK
September 1, 1978
The Pennsylvania Continuous Wage and Benefit History (PA-CWBH) Code Book describes a public use data set developed by PRI from Pennsylvania Unemployment Insurance (UI) administration records. These data cover 4,000 claimants (0.6 percent of the covered population). Information about claims activity, such as the number and amount of UI payments, in 1966, 1967, and 1968 and information about employment, such as annual earnings and principal industry in 1967, 1968, 1969 and 1970, are included in the data.
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ARIZONA EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT DATA CODE BOOK
September 1, 1978
The Arizona Employment and Unemployment Data Code Book describes a public use data set developed by PRI from Arizona Unemployment Insurance (UI) administration records and Social Security Administration's Longitudinal Employer-Employee Data (LEED). The UI data is a 20 percent sample drawn from the Arizona Continuous Wage and Benefit History (CBWH) sample. This data base contains detailed longitudinal histories of both the employment and unemployment experience of workers who claimed UI benefits in Arizona between 1963 and 1971. In total, about 40,000 workers are in the file. Employment information includes earnings and principal industry for each year. Unemployment information includes the data and amount of each UI payment, and the date of all administrative actions, such as disqualifications. Age, race, and sex are included as well.
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