Research for Computer Models

This paper presents an illustration of a method that can be used to examine tradoffs in force levels (aircraft) and the logistic support required for these aircraft.

This research contribution analyzes the problem of ordnance acquisition when the targets to be attacked are uncertain. It introduces the use of a utility function to evaluate the outcome of the attack process. Two models of the attack process are considered: The first assumes that the random target vector is attacked simultaneously with the available weapons. The second is a Sequential-Attack Model (SEAM) in which targets appear one at a time and the attack process continues as long as the current target can be attacked. The expected utility for a mix of weapons for the Simultaneous-Attack Model (SIAM) is computed as the weighted average of the expected utility of the mix of weapons against each target vector. The expected value for the SEAM is estimated by using a simulation of the attack process. It is argued that older methods of selecting weapons are biased towards special-purpose weapons and that the SIAM and SEAM models are not subjected to this deficiency. Furthermore, in spite of being the more complicated model, the SEAM approach appears more realistic in the way that it models that attack process. An operational example is used to illustrate the problem and the SEAM approach.

This analysis investigates the savings that could be achieved from using selected reenlistment bonuses to improve the long-run balance between accession and first-term retention in the Navy. It also provides a brief summary of the model used in addressing this issue.

Recruiting, training, and reenlistment bonus costs are calculated for recruits with 4-year enlistments in 28 rating groups. A computer simulation model is developed to minimize these costs while meeting manpower requirements.