Research for Computational Methods

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The Determinants of Personnel Turnover Costs and Accession Requirements - a Steady-State Model
June 1, 1974
A model is developed which can be used to estimate changes in labor turnover costs that will result from changes in a host of behavioral and other parameters; any voluntary re-enlistment rate (first term, second term); any involuntary loss rate (during the first year, second year); lengths of boot camp and 'A' school training; pupil-teacher ratios in boot camp and in 'A' schools; duration of on-the-job training, etc. Once various parameter values have been specified, calculations can be carried out in a matter of minutes on a hand calculator. An important limitation of the model is its 'steady-state' character.
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GENERAL AVIATION, NAVAL AVIATION AND CONGESTION WITH AN EXAMPLE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
June 1, 1974
Federal Aviation Authority projections of general aviation activity for 1980 show a 75 percent increase over 1969 levels. Such growth will cause a substantial increase in general aviation traffic in airspace over metropolitan areas, creating difficulties for present users of airspace including the Navy. This paper describes a simple computational model used to translate projected general aviation growth into implied densities and aircraft interaction frequencies. The model is applied to Southern California and a case study is made of Miramar NAS at San Diego. The study shows that Navy operations there will be seriously hampered by general aviation traffic within the decade unless stricter air traffic controls are imposed. Such controls are probably justifiable considering the costs of moving Navy operations out of Miramar in comparison to the costs to general aviation of staying clear of prescribed Navy airspace.
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THE GRISLY ANALYTICS OF DEATH, DISABILITY, AND DISBURSEMENTS
June 1, 1974
In a large class of decision problems under uncertainty, death, disability, and reductions in wealth enter the analysis as crucial arguments in the utility function. Much of the literature in public health and safety programs, insurance programs, and clinical decision-making concerns itself with optimal behavior in the presence of risk in these variables. This paper sets out, primarily, to describe the assumptions which typically underlie these analyses and demonstrate why they may be too restrictive for models which deal with death, disability, and disbursement variables. An alternative scheme is proposed.
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CNA COMPUTER PROGRAM 19-69, WEAPON PATTERN EFFECTIVENESS III
June 1, 1974
A Monte Carlo simulation program has been written in FORTRAN to compute hit probabilities of a pattern of weapons against a maneuvering target. The aimpoint is specified, and a bivariate normal aiming error is assumed for the weapon pattern; individual weapons in the pattern are assumed to have bivariate normal (ballistic) dispersion errors. Target initial velocity, time spent in a straight leg, turning radius, and time spent in the turn are specified, and a normal distribution are included. Flow charts, program listing, and sample inputs and outputs are provided.
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EVALUATING CHANGES IN THE HEALTH CARE DELIVERY SYSTEM - AN APPLICATION TO INTENSIVE CARE MONITORING
June 1, 1974
This paper proposes a tool for evaluation of potential changes in the system for the delivery of health care. Starting with a definition of a community health production function, the paper introduces the concept of 'nested production functions' in health care. The production function approach is seen as providing a mechanism for explicit consideration of the substitution and optimal input combination questions which are the basis of all evaluations of changes in the health care delivery system. The discussion of this technique is followed by an application of intensive care monitoring. While actual data has not been gathered, a model is formulated for evaluating the effect of computerization of certain intensive care procedures.
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MATHEMATICAL BACKGROUND FOR EVALUATION OF AA FIRING TESTS
June 1, 1974
Comparisons of the accuracy and effectiveness of AA fire as controlled by various directors can be made only if suitable measures of effectiveness can be defined. This study suggests some measures of effectiveness which may be calculated from the results of firing tests with 5-inch non-fragmenting VT-fuzed ammunition against drones making various types of approach runs, and which are suitable in comparing directors. This study also shows what data must be recorded in order to compute these quantities and develops formulas and methods of computation. See also 10 000260, 10 000261, and 10 000262.
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AN INCREMENTAL PRODUCTION FOR THE END-ITEM REPAIR PROCESS
June 1, 1974
This paper discusses the case of a firm that owns a fleet of end items and a repair facility for conducting periodic scheduled maintenance of the end items. If the number of units of operational end items is less than required, the firm can correct the deficiency by taking several courses of action. The optimal set of actions to be taken by the firm under various assumptions is determined. A numerical example is solved using both mathematical and graphical methods.
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A COMPUTER PROGRAM FOR UNBALANCED ANALYSES OF VARIANCE
June 1, 1974
A computer subroutine which performs an analysis of variance on any set of xijk with 3 indexes or less, i.e., where the measurements xijk, assumed normal, may depend on up to three different factors is described. The number of samples for each (i,j,k) may vary with (i,j,k). In cases where there are more than three factors, the subroutine can still be useful; the user can choose 3 factors from the class of relevant factors in various ways (essentially aggregating the others).
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USERS GUIDE FOR GENERALIZED FACTOR ANALYSIS PROGRAM (FACTAN)
June 1, 1974
This paper discusses the procedure of factor analysis and provides details on the use of a computer program which performs a principal components analysis, tests of significance, and rotation of factors determined from a matrix of intercorrelations of up to 99 variables.
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A MODEL OF CARRIER-SUBMARINE INTERACTIONS
June 1, 1974
Analytic expressions for the probability that a single aircraft carrier, opposed by submarines, can remain on station for a specified length of time are discussed in this research contribution. The threat from both torpedo and cruise-missile submarines is considered, but the threat from aircraft is not. Expressions for expected submarine losses are derived. Expressions are also developed to show how the probability of remaining on station improves as the carrier's resistance to damage increases. A wide variety of ASW force compositions and tactics can be represented in the parameters of the model. Appendix C presents an alternative way to formulate the problem and derive the quantities mentioned above. The two methods produce results that are in excellent agreement. The intention of the authors is to provide a tool that can be used to improve carrier effectiveness through the study of tactics and force interactions.
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