Research for Computational Methods

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ON APPROXIMATING THE CIRCULAR COVERAGE FUNCTION
March 1, 1978

This paper presents tables and graphs assessing the accuracy of a formula (programmable on a desk calculator) for approximating the circular coverage function of a circular-normal probability distribution. Use of this formula together with the error curves presented here enable one to calculate the circular coverage function with a maximum error on the order of 0.0002 for offsets up to 50 and covering-circle radii up to 4.50.

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LOTKA'S FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION OF SCIENTIFIC PRODUCTIVITY
March 1, 1978

In 1926, Alfred Lotka examined the frequency distribution of scientific productivity of chemists and physicists. After analyzing the number of publications of chemists listed in Chemical Abstracts 1907-1916 and the contributions of physicists listed in Auerbach's Geschichtstafeln der Physik, he observed that the number of persons making n contributions is about 1/n squared of those making one and the proporation of all contributors that make a single contribution is about 60 percent. Recently, investigator's studying the applicability of 'Lotka's Law' to the humanities and to map librarianship may have misinterpreted Lotka's Law and have concluded erroneously that the law applies to these fields. Corrected calculations indicate that Lotka's Law does not apply.

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ROTC SERVICE COMMITMENTS: A COMMENT ON THOMAS AND BIERMAN'S PAPER IN PUBLIC CHOICE, FALL 1975
December 1, 1976
This brief paper counters the argument that the ROTC candidate supply will be increased and that there will be a higher quality of candidates in the program.
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Hydrofoils for the Fisheries Law Enforcement Mission of the U.S. Coast Guard, Appendixes Describing Methodology
March 1, 1976
This volume describes in detail some of the methodology used in the analyses presented in volume I, including: the application of the Navy Billet Cost Model for the computation of Coast Guard personnel costs; the methods used to compute the cost/effectiveness of hydrofoils and various conventional Coast Guard resources in performing a variety of fisheries law enforcement tasks; and the computer model developed to compute the possible contribution to SAR of hydrofoils engaged in a primary fisheries law enforcement role.
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A PROBABILITY STUDY OF COMINCH DAILY SUBMARINE ESTIMATE
December 1, 1975
This memorandum characterizes the prediction value of a plot as a whole by testing all the positions as definite. The displacements (distances) of evaluated submarine contacts from the nearest plotted submarine on the COMINCH submarine chart last issued before the time of the contact serve as a basis for the analysis. A reliability index for several zones is calculated. See also 91 090018.
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VISION IN AIR SEA RESCUE SEARCH
August 1, 1974
Operational data in light of theoretical considerations of search are analyzed in this study. Ranges at which various targets can be seen under different conditions of sun, sea, cloud, and haze and probabilities that these targets will be seen are discussed. The results provide information on which to base number and sector assignments of lookouts, scanning procedure to be employed and force requirements for a given search task.
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THE VALUE OF TIME IN AIR TRAVEL, THEORY AND EVIDENCE
August 1, 1974
The roles of time and money cost in the demand for air travel are analyzed. The first step is to construct the theory of consumer demand under a time constraint and to deduce its theorems. These theorems are applied to air travel through use of a total price demand function. This analysis considers the effects for fare, trip time, airport delay, schedule frequency, trip distance, traveler's wage rates, and non-wage income on the demand for air travel. Many results concerning elasticities are obtained, including a necessary relationship between the time, price, and total price elasticities of demand. Tests of the theorems are performed, the various elasticities are estimates, and the relationship between the elasticities required by the theory is used to obtain an estimate of the value of time in air travel.
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THE USE OF SIMULTANEOUS EQUATION MODELS FOR DECISIONS PERTAINING TO THE BEST MIX BETWEEN AIRCRAFT, SPARE PARTS, SUPPORT EQUIPMENT AND SUPPORT PERSONNEL
August 1, 1974
The relationships between aircraft inputs (airplanes, spare parts, men, etc.) and the outputs of sorties or aircraft ready hours can be approximated reasonably well by a production function type model. It is the initial intent of this research effort to construct and evaluate such an aircraft carrier production function. This model will then permit defense managers to have better understanding of the actual input-output process of operating sea-based tactical aircraft.
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THE EFFECTS OF SHIPBOARD LIVING CONDITIONS ON FIRST-TERM RETENTION RATES AND A MODEL FOR THE ALLOCATION OF FUNDS AMONG HABITABILITY IMPROVEMENTS
July 1, 1974
Data from a 1969 CINCLANTFLT study based on a questionaire is subjected to regression analysis to determine whether shipboard habitability and time in homeport affect retention. Tentative results suggest that they do. A methodology that makes use of the questionaire responses is proposed to determine the optimal allocation of funds among habitability improvements. Further study is recommended, including a new questionaire and survey.
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A DYNAMIC INVENTORY MODEL WITH DELIVERY LAG AND REPAIR
June 1, 1974
This paper describes an inventory system in which demands for spare parts arise due to part failure. Successive demands are assumed to be independent and identically distributed random variables. The model considers the perdiodic review of a single part with backlogging of demand.
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