Research for Attrition

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Analysis of Closure Alternatives for Naval Stations and Naval Air Stations
February 1, 1981
This document consists of reprints from 'Hearings before the Subcommittee on Military Construction of the Committee on Armed Services,' U.S. Senate, 93rd Congress. Reprints are based on inputs from indicated CNA authors.
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ESTIMATION OF THE EFFECTS OF A SHIP'S STEAMING ON THE FAILURE RATE OF ITS EQUIPMENT: AN APPLICATION OF ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS
February 1, 1981
Regression analysis is used to estimate the effects of a ship's steaming on the failure rate of its equipment, holding constant the effects of other factors such as a ship's class, fleet, time since overhaul, and point in the deployment cycle. Equipment failures are measured with data on 14,000 CASREPs for destroyer-type ships in 1970-75. It is widely thought that steaming would increase the number of equipment failures due to wearout. However, this report found that the failure rate of equipment seemed to decrease with steaming in the long run.
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The Effects of Steaming on Ship Downtime and Fuel Consumption
January 1, 1980
Regression analysis is used to estimate the effects of steaming on a ship's condition and fuel consumption. Equipment condition of destroyers, cruisers and frigates is measured with data from Casualty Reports (CASREPTs) that were made between Jan 1970 and Jul 1975. A separate analysis is undertaken of steaming's effects on each of three components of CASREPT downtime--CASREPT rate, supply time, and maintenance time. The effects of various factors besides steaming are also measured, including ship's fleet (Atlantic or Pacific), ship's class, and time since overhaul. Steaming's effects on diesel, JP5, and other fuel are estimated for each of 13 ship classes and also for the typical destroyer.
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THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF AN INTERRUPTION IN UNITED STATES PETROLEUM IMPORTS, 1975 THRU 2000
December 1, 1978
This paper estimates U.S. dependence on foreign oil for the period 1975 through 2000 and examines the economic effect on the U.S. of an interruption of this oil.
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US Navy, Marine Corps and Air Force Fixed-Wing Aircraft Losses and Damage in Southeast Asia 1962-1973
August 1, 1976
This research contribution summarizes statistics on the losses, damage, loss rates, and hit rates of U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force fixed-wing aircraft in Southeast Asia from 1962-1973. A chronology of the air war in Southeast Asia is also presented. Damage and Loss Data are included as appendix C in microfiche format.
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DEFENSE AGAINST KAMIKAZE ATTACKS IN WORLD WAR II AND ITS RELEVANCE TO ANTI-SHIP MISSILE DEFENSE, VOL I, AN ANALYTICAL HISTORY OF KAMIKAZE ATTACKS AGAINST SHIPS OF THE UNITED STATES NAVY DURING WORLD WAR II
April 1, 1975
Examines the experience of the US Navy in countering attacks by Japanese suicide aircraft (Kamikaze) in World War II, and provides an analytical history of the Kamikaze program and develops estimates of the effectiveness of the Kamikaze and of efforts to counter it. Statistics on results in the Philippine and Okinawan Campaigns are used to establish estimates of the effectiveness of defense at various states--attack at the source, defense by interceptors, defense by anti-aircraft guns, and the like. These estimates are used to provide a model of overall effectiveness.
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DISTRIBUTION OF LOSSES IN AN IDEALIZED ANTISHIPPING CAMPAIGN
June 1, 1974
This paper describes an idealized, steady state antishipping campaign carried out by submarines whose operations are mutually independent. The probability distribution of the number of successful patrols per submarine is derived and the probability distribution of the total shipping losses (total number of ships hit) is approximated.
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VALIDATION OF COMBAT MODELS AGAINST HISTORICAL DATA
June 1, 1974
This paper briefly discusses the problems of model validation when dealing with historical data and describes the effort to validate a Tactical Warfare Simulation Program using data from the 1950-53 Korean War.
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A MODEL OF CARRIER-SUBMARINE INTERACTIONS
June 1, 1974
Analytic expressions for the probability that a single aircraft carrier, opposed by submarines, can remain on station for a specified length of time are discussed in this research contribution. The threat from both torpedo and cruise-missile submarines is considered, but the threat from aircraft is not. Expressions for expected submarine losses are derived. Expressions are also developed to show how the probability of remaining on station improves as the carrier's resistance to damage increases. A wide variety of ASW force compositions and tactics can be represented in the parameters of the model. Appendix C presents an alternative way to formulate the problem and derive the quantities mentioned above. The two methods produce results that are in excellent agreement. The intention of the authors is to provide a tool that can be used to improve carrier effectiveness through the study of tactics and force interactions.
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