Research for Attrition
October 1, 2005
The goal of this study is to provide the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Reserve Affairs (Manpower and Personnel) with empirical information on loss patterns in the Selected Reserves (SelRes) since September 11, 2001. Of particular interest is how activation affected the loss behavior of SelRes members. We created a longitudinal database that follows SelRes members from September 2001 to January 2005. The database consists of records from the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) Reserve Component Common Personnel Data System (RCCPDS) merged with extracts from DMDC’s Contingency Tracking System. We use the database to compare the loss behavior of recently deactivated SelRes members with that of other SelRes members. For Reserve officers, we found that post-9/11 officer loss rates were higher than SelRes loss rates in FY 2000, a year with a low number of activations. Loss rates are higher for those who were activated but not deployed (remained in CONUS) compared with those who deployed (outside CONUS). However, SelRes officer loss rates are the lowest among the never activated. Finally, for some components, loss rates increase with the length of activation.
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June 1, 2005
The goal of this study is to provide the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Reserve Affairs (Manpower and Personnel) with empirical information on loss patterns in the Selected Reserves (SelRes) since September 11, 2001. Of particular interest is how activation affected the loss behavior of SelRes members. We created a longitudinal database that follows SelRes members from September 2001 to January 2005. The database consists of records from the Defense Manpower Data Center’s (DMDC) Reserve Component Common Personnel Data System (RCCPDS) merged with extracts from DMDC’s Contingency Tracking System. We use the database to compare the loss behavior of recently deactivated SelRes members with that of other SelRes members. For the enlisted force, we found that post-9/11 SelRes loss rates were higher than SelRes loss rates in FY 2000, a year with a low number of activations. Loss rates are higher for those who were activated but not deployed (remained in CONUS) compared with those who deployed (outside CONUS). For some components, loss rates increase with the length of activation. We also found that those with multiple activations had loss rates similar to those with one.
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April 1, 2005
This paper examines immigration’s effects on the recruitable-age population and the success of non-citizen service members in the military. We find that, controlling for other factors, 3-month attrition rates for non-citizens are 3.7 percentage points lower than for citizens. Similarly, 36-month attrition rates for non-citizen accessions are between 9 and 20 percentage points lower than those for white U.S. citizens.
July 1, 2004
The Conference Report of the National Defense Authorization Act of Fiscal Year 1999 directed the establishment of a 5-year pilot program requiring the Services to treat graduates of homeschools, and graduates of the National Guard Youth ChalleNGe program who possess a GED, as Tier 1 for enlistment purposes. This interim study evaluates how these recruits compare with other recruits. Home school graduates with AFQT scores of 50 and above have 12-month attrition levels comparable to those of high school diploma graduates. While the majority of home school recruits have high AFQT scores, those with lower scores have high attrition levels. While ChalleNGe GEDs in the Navy and Air Force have very high attrition levels, those in the Army and Marine Corps have quite low attrition. In addition, we find that the number of recruits in Tiers 2 and 3 in each Service is significantly greater than that captured in DMDC files.
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July 1, 2004
This paper explores the influence of education credentials, attitudes, and behaviors on first-term attrition. As in the past, education credentials remain strong predictors of attrition. However, we also find that measures of attitudes and past behaviors not included in recruits’ official records are strongly related to the likelihood of attrition. Examples include smoking behavior and attitude towards completing high school. We also find that enlistees with certificates of completion or attendance have substantially lower attrition than others holding alternate credentials. Finally, some characteristics (such as age) have differential effects on traditional high school diploma graduates versus those with alternate credentials. Our results suggest that, although education credential remains a consistent predictor of attrition, other factors are also extremely important. This provides the Services with the opportunity to lower overall attrition rates by screening for recruits with strong noncognitive factors.
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July 1, 2004
The Conference Report of the National Defense Authorization Act of Fiscal Year 1999 directed the establishment of a 5-year pilot program requiring the military Services to treat graduates of homeschools, and graduates of the National Guard Youth ChalleNGe program who possess a GED, as Tier 1 for enlistment eligibility purposes. This study evaluates how these recruits compare with other recruits. Because of the substantial cost of replacing recruits who do not fulfill their enlistment obligation, attrition rates serve as our primary outcome measure; however, we also examine other measures including initial aptitude, initial paygrade, type of discharge, presence of waivers, and reason for separation. We find that both homeschooled and ChalleNGe GED recruits have much higher attrition rates than traditional high school graduates. Our findings on other measures match up with our attrition findings; homeschooled and ChalleNGe GED recruits are not strong recruits by these measures either.
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January 1, 2004
The Marine Corps has been very successful at recruiting Hispanics, and Hispanic recruits do well in the Marine Corps. This study highlights several challenges that may affect the services' ability to recruit Hispanics in the future—including high levels of high school dropout rates, language fluency of recruits and their parents, and citizenship status.
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November 1, 2003
N81 asked CNA to examine time-to-train (TTT), timing of training, and attrition trends during initial skills training. To examine these trends, we track recruits’ early career histories using the Enlisted Street-to-Fleet (ESTF) database, updated with FY01 accessions. We find that the initial training improvements that occurred since the FY97 accessions leveled off with the FY00 accessions, but then improved again with the FY01 accessions. For FY01 accessions, months to the fleet was at a 6-year low of 11 months. To provide benchmarks to monitor the progress of training initiatives, we present detailed training data for three ratings that have undergone training reevaluation and participated in training pilot programs. We also examine pre- and post-fleet A-school participation and find that most initial A-school training occurs before reaching the fleet. We find that few accessions participate in e-learning-based A-school courses but participation is increasing, particularly for 6YOs. Along with a decreased time to the fleet, a higher percentage of FY01 accessions reached the fleet than with the five previous accessions. Our preliminary findings on bootcamp attrition for the FY02 accessions suggest that the trend of declining bootcamp attrition is likely to continue.
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August 1, 2003
The late 1980’s and 1990’s were a period of intensive reform within American public education. However, in terms of verified student outcomes, there is little evidence that most of these reforms had the desired impact. Examining military personnel data, which is a highly detailed source of information on recent high school graduate’s performance, we find that the quality of Navy recruits improved during the 1990’s. However, we don’t find evidence that this improvement was the result of school reform. Specifically, recruits from states that enacted reform do no better on our performance measures than recruits from non-reform states, even after controlling for baseline performance. In some cases, recruits from “reform” states perform at lower levels than those from non-reform states. Reforms seem to affect non-degree graduates differently (often more negatively) than they affect high school graduates. The increase in quality of Navy recruits appears to be due to selective recruiting and/or a general increase in achievement, rather than to any specific school reform(s).
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April 1, 2003
While enlistment bonuses (EBs) have traditionally been used to affect accession decisions, it seems likely that offering a recruit a bonus that is payable at the end of training could also reduce attrition. This study attempts to assess the relationship between the size of the enlistment bonus offered a recruit and the likelihood that the recruit attrites—holding all else constant. Following recent studies of enlistment incentives, we employed non-experimental data (data generated from the administration of the EB program) to explore this relationship. Using this type of data creates an empirical challenge because both the size of enlistment bonuses and attrition behavior are likely to be substantially affected by unobserved variables. While there are various empirical techniques to control for the effects of unobserved variables under specific circumstances, we find that these methods have only limited applicability to the current analysis—that is, they can only control for some of the effects of omitted variables. Among our empirical findings, we find limited evidence that enlistment bonuses reduce attrition. While we believe that these statistical results are not substantial enough to guide policy, we suggest that they are sufficiently compelling to justify the Navy pursuing experiments on the issue.
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