Research for Attrition

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Marine Corps Recruits: A Historical Look at Accessions and Bootcamp Performance
October 29, 2010

CNA has maintained personnel databases for the Marine Corps for more than 30 years, with individual accession records going back to FY79. Just as long as we have been keeping the official records, we have been analyzing recruit characteristics and attrition through studies and scientific analyst memoranda. Over the years, we have identified characteristics that are particularly important to monitor because they are closely associated with successful adaptation to life in the Marine Corps.

This annotated briefing analyzes the last 30 years, trying to answer the following questions:
• Have recruit characteristics changed over time?
• Have the relationships between recruit characteristics and subsequent attrition remained stable or have the patterns changed?
• What characteristics are most important for predicting success in the Corps?

While most of the focus is on accession characteristics and bootcamp attrition, we also look at first-term attrition and long-term retention.
 

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Expanding the Recruiting Market: Noncognitive Testing
September 15, 2010

The relationship between education credentials and first-term attrition rates in the military is well established. Enlistees who lack a traditional high school diploma have first-term attrition rates that are 40 to 50 percent higher than those of high school diploma graduates. This research explores the relationships between AIM scores, other personal characteristics, and military performance.
 

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ChalleNGe: Variation in Participants and Policies Across Programs: Subpopulations and Geographic Analysis
March 1, 2009

The National Guard Youth Challenge (ChalleNGe) program is a quasi-military residential program for young high school dropouts. The ChalleNGe model includes a number of core components, with a focus on academics, physical fitness, and service. In this research, we examine how various aspects of the ChalleNGe model affect cadets, detail the types of schools cadets previously attended, and report on the military performance of those ChalleNGe cadets who go on to enlist. We find no evidence that cadets’ characteristics have an impact on how well ChalleNGe works; the program successfully serves cadets from a wide variety of backgrounds, many of whom previously attended poorly-performing school districts. Our research indicates that militarism is a central element of the ChalleNGe program. Graduation rates are higher at more militaristic programs; also, among cadets who enlist, those from more militaristic programs have better first-term performance. Finally, while enlisted cadets still struggle to adapt to the military during the second and third years of enlistment, the first-term attrition of ChalleNGe cadets continue to decrease over time.

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Eighth Annual Navy Workforce Research and Analysis Conference: Leading the Change: The Research Community in Navy's Strategic Vanguard
January 1, 2009

The Deputy Chief of Naval Operations (Manpower, Personnel, Training, & Education (N1)) for the eighth year, asked CNA to organize a conference for the Navy manpower and training community leadership and the research organizations that support that community. The goal of the conference was to help researchers better leverage their resources, provide more useful products, and improve the overall research program. The theme for the Eighth Annual Navy Workforce Research and Analysis Conference held in May 2008, was “Leading the Change: The Research Community in the Navy’s Strategic Vanguard.” Ms. Anita Blair, Assistant Secretary of the Navy (M&RA), Acting, RADM William E. Landay III, Chief of Naval Research, and VADM Mark E. Ferguson III, Chief of Naval Personnel began with plenary sessions. Ms. Blair presented the DoN Human Capital Strategy’s vision and strategic objective. RADM Landay delivered the keynote presentation, which focused on the Office of Naval Research (ONR) science and technology work. VADM Ferguson presented “The Role of Research and Analysis in Achieving FIT”, a total force concept for delivering the right Sailor to the right job. Researchers presented briefings in breakout sessions on manpower, personnel, training, education, diversity, quality of life and related topics.

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USMC Training: A Synthesis of CNA's Work
November 1, 2008
Maintaining a corps of highly skilled Marines is critical to the success of the Marine Corps. Such a force is the result of well-conceived and designed training programs. CNA’s training analyses are designed to help the Marine Corps develop and maintain such programs. Our analyses tend to fall into two categories- training assessment, and the economics of training. In our training assessment studies, we attempt to answer the following questions, “Is what is being taught, being learned?” and “Is what is being taught, what needs to be taught?” We use a skills-based approach to identify the core skills that a Marine needs to acquire through specific training and to assess whether the training teaches those skills. The second type of training study we undertake explores the links between manpower and the training pipeline. In one sub-set of studies, we focus on the rates and causes of attrition, particularly for first-term non-EAS Marines, and on critical indicators that the Marine Corps can use to better track manpower throughout the training pipeline. A second sub-set focuses on how long it takes to train a Marine, and the effect of the training process on manpower.
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Variation in Participants in Policies Across ChalleNGe Programs
April 1, 2008
The National Guard Youth Challenge (ChalleNGe) program enrolls young high school dropouts into a system that combines classroom instruction with a quasi-military environment. Most graduates also earn a GED (or other credential) while enrolled. We find evidence that the first term attrition rate of ChalleNGe graduates has fallen over time. In addition, there are significant differences between programs both in terms of program completion and eventual military attrition of those who enlist. This variation may arise from differences either in how the program is implemented or in the population served by the program. We find both factors influence outcomes – those who come from more advantaged neighborhoods not only perform better in the ChalleNGe program but also perform better in the military if they enlist, and programs with a higher degree of militarization have higher graduation rates. Finally, we make the case that non-cognitive skills are likely to be a driving factor in explaining the performance of ChalleNGe cadets.
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The Seventh Annual Navy Workforce Research and Analysis Conference: The Road to a 2025 Total Force
November 1, 2007
The Deputy Chief of Naval Operations (Manpower, Personnel, Training & Education (N1)) has for the seventh year, asked CNA to organize a conference for the Navy manpower and training community leadership and the research organizations that support that community. The conference was held in May of 2007 and like previous conferences it was a success. Once again, the goal of the conference was to help researchers better leverage their resources, provide more useful products, and improve the overall research program. The theme of the Seventh Annual Navy Workforce Research and Analysis Conference was “The Road to a 2025 Total Force.” The title of the keynote address by ADM Patrick M. Walsh, Vice Chief of Naval Operations, was “Navy 2025—Our Role in Joint Ops and Around the World.” Researchers presented briefings in breakout sessions on manpower, personnel, training, education and related topics such as: Thinking about the Navy’s Future, Civilian Workforce Issues, Officer Education Issues, Reserve Issues, Global War on Terrorism (GWOT), Recruit, Attrition, Retention, Compensation, Diversity, and the Supply Chain. This conference report summarizes each of the breakout sessions.
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Analysis of CIVMAR Attrition and the Role of Shore Leave
May 1, 2006
In the past few years, Military Sealift Command (MSC) leadership has discussed with its civilian mariners (CIVMARs) the idea of increasing shore leave. CNA was asked first to analyze the existence and extent of an MSC attrition problem, and second to analyze the relationship between shore leave and attrition. In the first portion of the study, our analysis did not yield convincing evidence of a significant attrition problem. There has been no upward trend in the attrition rate, and there has been no drop in the experience level of CIVMARs. Accordingly, MSC decided not to pursue an increase in shore leave at this time. In the second portion of the study, we found a negative correlation between shore leave balances and attrition. We found that those mariners who attrite typically have lower shore leave balances, and those that stay typically have higher shore leave balances. Based on CNA’s previous analysis of CIVMAR attrition we conclude that increasing shore leave would reduce attrition, given that shore leave is a form of compensation and the relationship between compensation and attrition is negative. However, the magnitude of the effect appears to be quite small.
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Attrition Rates and Performance of ChalleNGe Participants Over Time
April 1, 2006
The National Guard Youth Challenge (ChalleNGe) program enrolls young high school dropouts into a system that combines classroom instruction with a quasi-military environment. Most graduates also earn a GED (or other credential) while enrolled. Furthermore, we find that the program has positive effects on those who complete it as ChalleNGe graduates who subsequently enlist in the military have much lower attrition than those who fail to complete the program before enlistment. Outcomes differ across programs; graduates of some ChalleNGe programs have attrition rates that are consistently below those of typical high school diploma graduates. However, some portion of this difference most likely stems from unobserved differences in state populations, school quality, admissions procedures, and/or program policies. To separate program differences from other unobserved differences, we recommend following up on our results in two ways. First, matching the ChalleNGe program data to Census data will allow for the inclusion of variables measuring state and local area characteristics that are now unobserved. Second, qualitative analysis of how policies relating to admission and discipline differ across programs could reveal the source of some program-level differences, and could provide an opportunity for programs to learn from each other.
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Does Education Reform Make Recruiting More Difficult?
October 1, 2005

In this research, we use Census data to examine how the pool of potential recruits has changed in the face of changing education requirements. Next, we examine how the performance of Sailors and Marines has changed in response to these requirements. We find that education requirements often have nuanced effects on the civilian population—helping some groups while harming others. Within the Navy and the Marine Corps, education requirements have had only muted effects to date. In general, attrition rates are not influenced by these policies, but some measures of quality (i.e., AFQT scores) are. Finally, we find that the growth of those holding alternate credentials in the Navy is not related to education requirements at all but instead is related to the recruiting environment.

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