Research for Assessments

The Commanding General, Marine Corps Combat Development Command (MCCDC) asked the Center for Naval Analyses to assess the general applicability of the new science to land warfare. 'New Sciences' is a catch-all phrase that refers to the tools and methodologies used in nonlinear dynamics and complex systems theory to study physical dynamical systems exhibiting a 'complicated dynamics.' This report concludes that the concepts, ideas, theories, tools and general methodologies of nonlinear dynamics and complex systems theory show enormous, almost unlimited, potential for not just providing better solutions for certain existing problems of land combat, but for fundamentally altering our general understanding of the basic processes of war, at all levels. Indeed, the new sciences' greatest legacy may, in the end, prove to be not just a set of creative answers to old questions but and entirely new set of questions to be asked of what really happens on the battlefield. The central thesis of this paper is that land combat is a complex adaptive system. That is to say, that land combat is essentially a nonlinear dynamical system composed of many interacting semi-autonomous and hierarchically organized agents continuously adapting to a changing environment. See also CIM 461.10.

The Commander, Seventh Fleet asked the Center for Naval Analyses to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) between now and 2010. This research memorandum assesses the dominant economic trends within the region and how those trends will affect prospects both for Asia as a whole and for the main economies within the region by 2010. The study analyzes the region mainly in terms of groups of economies with shared or similar characteristics and behavior.

The Commander, Seventh Fleet, asked CNA to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) to the year 2010. In addition to an examination of the major countries of the region, of security trends in Asia (e.g., demographics and weapon development), and of future economic trends in the APR, this assessment warranted an evaluation of Chinese naval capabilities over the period of interest. This research memorandum presents the results of that evaluation. Much of the debate over China's future naval capabilities focuses on whether China will soon have a 'bluewater' navy. In this analysis, we argue that one of China's strategic objectives is to develop a regional navy. We define 'regional' or 'greenwater' navy as a navy capable of effectively achieving China's current regional aspirations (e.g., blockade of Taiwan, seizure of one or more islands in the Spratlys, sustainment of a naval force in the South China Sea, and the ability to inflict damage upon an intervening foreign navy).

The Commander, Seventh Fleet asked the Center for Naval Analyses to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) between now and 2010. This research memorandum assesses trends in those demographic, health, social, agricultural, and sustenance issues with the potential effects for security throughout the region. Data presented are for the most recent years or decades, and projections are for the 15-year period 1995-2010 unless otherwise specified.