Research for Asian

Syndicate content
China and Security in the Asian Pacific Region Through 2010
March 1, 1996
This research memorandum is part of a study sponsored by the Commander, Seventh Fleet, to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) between now and 2010. It focuses on the most probable evolutionary trends for China during this period. China's emergence as a major regional power will be one of the principal factors affecting the security, politics, and economies of Asia and the Pacific between now and 2010. The forces shaping China's emergence are primarily internal, but include such important external factors as Beijing s perceptions of the intentions of its neighbors and of the United States. Much of the uncertainty about China's future course and impact on the region center on whether, and how, China accepts the norms of the international systems that have grown since World War II - norms that have not yet been tested by the rapid rise in national power of a large non-Western country. Alternative scenarios emerging from the rapid changes underway in China could have widely varying implications for this and other issues.
Read More | Download Report
Asian Economic Prospects and Challenges, 1995-2010
March 1, 1996
The Commander, Seventh Fleet asked the Center for Naval Analyses to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) between now and 2010. This research memorandum assesses the dominant economic trends within the region and how those trends will affect prospects both for Asia as a whole and for the main economies within the region by 2010. The study analyzes the region mainly in terms of groups of economies with shared or similar characteristics and behavior.
Read More | Download Report
Japan 2010: Prospective Profiles
March 1, 1996
This research memorandum is part of a study sponsored by the Commander, Seventh Fleet, to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) between now and 2010. The study attempts to identify the most probable evolutionary trends in the APR out to 2010, and to derive implications for U.S. forces, particularly the Navy. This memorandum identifies these trends for Japan. The implications for the forces and for the Navy are contained in the final report for this project. The analysis strongly suggests the importance of a stable, credible U.S. presence in Japan in reinforcing Japan s current, yet potentially problematic, pro-U.S. orientation. The U.S. presence will significantly influence Japan' s defense policies because it will determine the credibility of broad U.S. nuclear and other security guarantees to Japan. Such a presence cannot be taken for granted 15 years hence.
Read More | Download Report
People's War at Sea: Chinese Naval Power in the Twenty-First Century
March 1, 1996
The Commander, Seventh Fleet, asked CNA to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) to the year 2010. In addition to an examination of the major countries of the region, of security trends in Asia (e.g., demographics and weapon development), and of future economic trends in the APR, this assessment warranted an evaluation of Chinese naval capabilities over the period of interest. This research memorandum presents the results of that evaluation. Much of the debate over China's future naval capabilities focuses on whether China will soon have a 'bluewater' navy. In this analysis, we argue that one of China's strategic objectives is to develop a regional navy. We define 'regional' or 'greenwater' navy as a navy capable of effectively achieving China's current regional aspirations (e.g., blockade of Taiwan, seizure of one or more islands in the Spratlys, sustainment of a naval force in the South China Sea, and the ability to inflict damage upon an intervening foreign navy).
Read More | Download Report
Human Dimensions of Asian Security
December 1, 1995
The Commander, Seventh Fleet asked the Center for Naval Analyses to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) between now and 2010. This research memorandum assesses trends in those demographic, health, social, agricultural, and sustenance issues with the potential effects for security throughout the region. Data presented are for the most recent years or decades, and projections are for the 15-year period 1995-2010 unless otherwise specified.
Read More | Download Report
The Political Effects of U.S. Military Presence In the Asian-Pacific Region
April 1, 1991
This research memorandum explores the political effects of U.S. military presence in the Asian-Pacific region. It proposes a framework that outlines the goals of presence and the process through which political effects develop. It then uses this conceptual framework to examine the political effects of presence in the region. This paper surveys U.S. policy objectives in the future security environment in Asia and explores the direct contribution of presence to U.S. policy objectives and the indirect support it gives through bolstering stability. Finally, it notes some implications of the analysis for future U.S. force options in the region. See also 96 005100, 96 005200, and 55 000506.
Read More | Download Report
The USSR and the Pacific Century
July 1, 1989
Recent Soviet press statements reflect a growing conviction that the emerging 'Pacific Century' has important implications for the USSR. While seemingly downgrading the military component of Soviet Far East presence, Soviet leaders are contemplating various unprecedented measures. Among them are the creation of 'free economic zones' and the opening of several ports, including Vladivostok. This research memorandum assesses the status of these developments, discusses some of their implications, and examines the possible nature of economic activity in the zones and potential sites for them. Also briefly noted are new trends in Soviet economic thinking.
Read More | Download Report