Research for Armed Forces

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March 1, 1996
This research memorandum is part of a study sponsored by the Commander, Seventh Fleet, to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) between now and 2010. It focuses on the most probable evolutionary trends for China during this period. China's emergence as a major regional power will be one of the principal factors affecting the security, politics, and economies of Asia and the Pacific between now and 2010. The forces shaping China's emergence are primarily internal, but include such important external factors as Beijing s perceptions of the intentions of its neighbors and of the United States. Much of the uncertainty about China's future course and impact on the region center on whether, and how, China accepts the norms of the international systems that have grown since World War II - norms that have not yet been tested by the rapid rise in national power of a large non-Western country. Alternative scenarios emerging from the rapid changes underway in China could have widely varying implications for this and other issues.
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June 1, 1992
This paper is the first in a series jointly sponsored by the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) and Russia's Institute for USA and Canada (ISKAN). This particular paper, by Sergei Rogov and his staff at ISKAN, provides an extensive overview of the complex relations within the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Rogov focuses specifically on military issues and the emergence of republican Armed Forces. The CIS arrangement is clearly not suitable for encouraging political cooperation; Rogov et al. suggests that it cannot even forge a military union. Yet, a new security structure has clearly emerged following the May summit in Tashkent. This paper discusses the implications of the Tashkent agreement as well as predicts a framework for Russia's future security relations.
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July 1, 1989
Soviet military and political leaders are currently engaged in a debate about instituting a cadre-militia system. Such a system would consist of a significantly smaller regular army, manned either by conscripts or volunteers, and a territorial militia based on universal service. Influential military men appear to be divided on how to respond to the prospect of reorganization. Depending upon its ultimate form, the change to a cadre-militia system could severely restrict the Soviet Union's ability to conduct large-scale offensive operations. The discussion will probably continue for some time to come, and its resolution promises to have far-reaching consequences for the security policy of the United States and its allies.
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April 1, 1989
A series of recent events indicates that the correlation of domestic forces has been turning against the Soviet military. This has been reflected in an unprecedented, wide-scale press assault on the Soviet military. Linked with the criticism are signs that the economic aspects of national security are being pushed to the forefront.
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October 1, 1986
This reader supplements other CNA papers about the future directions in the Western Alliance, by presenting the Soviet perspective on developments in Britain. Particular attention is given to recent Soviet writings on the United Kingdom, especially: its security aspirations, policies and debates, its roles in international affairs and arms control; its military forces; and its domestic politics.
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March 1, 1984

This paper provides a close look at Cuban military missions overseas.

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October 1, 1977

This paper reviews Cuban-Soviet relations since 1960, emphasizing major turning points. Cuban military diplomacy in Africa and the Middle East over the same period is examined, and the two records are compared. Insights gained from that comparison, and from the record of Cuban behavior, are then used to analyze Cuban participation in the Angolan civil war, and some of the prospects for Cuban policy in post-Angola Africa.

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