Research for Annualized Cost of Leaving Model

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Final Report of the Enlisted Manpower, Personnel and Training Study
September 1, 1986
Summarizes the work and finding of the Enlisted Manpower, Personnel and Training study conducted by a team of analysts at the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA). The study examined ways the Navy can most cost effectively attract and retain the enlisted personnel it needs when it is growing and when faced by stronger competition from the civilian sector and other services. Detailed descriptions of the analysis have been published in a series of CNA publications; this report summarizes those works and highlights the main findings relevant to the Navy's manpower needs.
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Pay and Retention of Marine Corps Aviators
February 1, 1985
The effect of pay on the retention of Marine Corps aviators is studied. The estimated pay effects are then used to evaluate the potential impact of three recent proposals to adjust the structure of Aviation Career Incentive Pay (ACIP).
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Manning the 600-Ship Navy: Analysis of Force Structure and Compensation Options for Navy Program Planning
December 1, 1984
An economic analyses conducted by CNA to evaluate policy options for meeting the Navy's growing manpower needs is described. The work was done in support of the Navy's Planning, Programming, and Budgeting process.
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A COMPARISON OF THE PROPHET AND ACOL FORCE PROJECTION MODELS
August 1, 1983
This paper compares the career force projections of the PROPHET and the ACOL models to actual historical experience over the period FY78-FY80.
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PROJECTING THE NAVY ENLISTED FORCE LEVEL
March 1, 1982
This paper assesses the accuracy of the annualized cost of leaving model in projecting the size and composition of the military enlisted force over the period FY 78-FY 80.
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MILITARY COMPENSATION AND RETENTION, AN ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE MODELS AND A SIMULATION OF A NEW RETENTION MODEL
October 1, 1981
Four major models for predicting the effects of changes in military pay on retention are described and compared. The most sophisticated model called the Stochastic Cost of Leaving or SCOL model, is simulated to demonstrate the effects of several changes in military compensation on retention.
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ALTERNATIVE MILITARY RETIREMENT SYSTEMS, THEIR EFFECTS ON ENLISTED RETENTION
January 1, 1981
The virtues and criticisms of the current military retirement system are described. Then an economic model is developed for analyzing the effects of different retirement systems on retention. The model also can be used to analyze other kinds of changes to the military compensation system. Here it is used to estimate the effects of three retirement plans on enlisted retention and force structure: (1) a two-tier plan that reduces annuities after 20 years of service, (2) a trust fund plan recommended by the President's Commission on Military Compensation that provides some benefits after 10 years but fewer after 20 years, and (3) a two-tier plan recommended by the Secretary of Defense that allows early withdrawal of prospective 20-year benefits after 10 years of service.
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