Research for All Volunteer Force

The Personnel Management in the All-Volunteer Force Study assesses the use of applicant screening, recruit assignment, and reenlistment bonuses to improve the retention of enlisted personnel.

The first-term retention gain from exploiting rating-specified survival probabilities when assigning recruits to ratings is assessed. The reassignment of 28,000 recruits to 37 ratings under the same conditions faced in the original assignment is simulated. A sizeable gain in first-term retention rate is demonstrated.

This analysis examines the mathematical relations between the performance of first-term Marines and their test scores and selected personal characteristics. The objective is to predict performance when only certain test scores and personal characteristics are known (i.e., at time of application for enlistment). A step-wise linear multiple regression process is used to identify the variables which best predict performance. Measures of performance include early attrition, desertion, early promotion, and rank achieved. A procedure for expressing the results in terms of the (new) ASVAB preenlistment test is provided, and a method for application of these results to Marine Corps enlistment screening is presented.

In FY 1972, non-prior service accessions to USN fell below stated requirements. The causes of the FY 1972 Navy recruiting shortfalls are analyzed. Productivity of recruiting resources and alternative recruiting strategies are discussed. Data on the draft lottery from January 1970 to August 1972 is used. Recommendations for policy changes and future research are made.