Research for Aircraft Carriers

Analytic expressions for the probability that a single aircraft carrier, opposed by submarines, can remain on station for a specified length of time are discussed in this research contribution. The threat from both torpedo and cruise-missile submarines is considered, but the threat from aircraft is not. Expressions for expected submarine losses are derived. Expressions are also developed to show how the probability of remaining on station improves as the carrier's resistance to damage increases. A wide variety of ASW force compositions and tactics can be represented in the parameters of the model. Appendix C presents an alternative way to formulate the problem and derive the quantities mentioned above. The two methods produce results that are in excellent agreement. The intention of the authors is to provide a tool that can be used to improve carrier effectiveness through the study of tactics and force interactions.