Research for AFQT

The late 1980’s and 1990’s were a period of intensive reform within American public education. However, in terms of verified student outcomes, there is little evidence that most of these reforms had the desired impact. Examining military personnel data, which is a highly detailed source of information on recent high school graduate’s performance, we find that the quality of Navy recruits improved during the 1990’s. However, we don’t find evidence that this improvement was the result of school reform. Specifically, recruits from states that enacted reform do no better on our performance measures than recruits from non-reform states, even after controlling for baseline performance. In some cases, recruits from “reform” states perform at lower levels than those from non-reform states. Reforms seem to affect non-degree graduates differently (often more negatively) than they affect high school graduates. The increase in quality of Navy recruits appears to be due to selective recruiting and/or a general increase in achievement, rather than to any specific school reform(s).

Since the inception of the All-Volunteer Force in 1973, the military personnel system has shown a remarkable ability to deal with a diverse range of challenges. The purpose of this paper is to examine the challenges ahead and propose how the military personnel system will have to adapt to continue to prosper. We start our discussion with a review of four potential problem areas in the future: demographic, economic, and social change; new military concepts and missions; the revolution in business affairs; and technology. Within these broad areas, we focus on specific issues and the challenges they could present for the current military personnel system. The paper also identifies four areas that need major reforms to meet these challenges: recruiting, career management, compensation, and training.

The Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) serves as an initial screen for military selection. AFQT scores must accurately reflect the quality of recruits who enter the services and must maintain the same meaning and interpretation over time. Unfortunately, several changes in the AFQT and other problems make such historical computations and score interpretations difficult. This research memorandum details these past problems and presents solutions that will allow for the proper computation of current AFQT scores from historical databases.

This research memorandum covers a variety of issues related to the performance of enlisted infantry unit leaders and the ability of the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) to predict that performance. Performance strengths and weaknesses were identified for a representative sample of almost 400 unit leaders who were tested with hands-on performance tests and job knowledge tests. The tasks were also analyzed for the perishability of the skills involved if not performed on a regular basis. Finally, these measures of unit leader performance were related to ASVAB. A strong relationship was found between an individual's ASVAB scores and his later performance as an infantry unit leader. Such findings have strong implications for the quality of individuals the Marine Corps should recruit to be able to staff its future leadership positions with qualified personnel.