Research for Advancement/Promotion
April 1, 1998
This paper examines the effectiveness of Voluntary Education (VOLED) Program, which provides off-duty educational opportunities integrating a variety of continuing education programs to Sailors seeking to enhance their professional and personal growth. VOLED comprises three major instructional elements: Tuition Assistance, the Program for Afloat College Education (PACE) and the Academic Skills Learning Centers (ASLCs). The analyses finds that college education through VOLED improves promotion prospects, helps Sailors retake the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) to qualify for Navy ratings for which they were not eligible, has a significant positive impact on retention, and that all elements are cost-effective. The report recommends maintaining full support for VOLED and accelerating academic skills investments. It also recommends modifying the ASLC contract to promote greater participation and establishing an academic transcript system. Finally, it recommends encouraging a more supportive command climate and limiting the enrollment of E1s and E2s.
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June 1, 1994
Recent controversy over lower rates of minority success in Officer Candidate School (OCS), The Basic School (TBS), and early promotions highlights the need to learn the underlying issues, problems, and mechanisms. In 1992, the Marine Corps began to examine the relatively poor outcomes of minority officers early in their careers. It had observed, for example, that a larger proportion of minorities than whites failed to complete the initial pre-commissioning course at OCS. Efforts to understand this gap continue. The Marines convened a Quality Management Board (QMB) at Quantico to investigate the issue. The QMB commissioned CNA to conduct analyses to determine measurable factors that might explain outcome differences. Although the differential outcomes were reduced, a gap continued to exist even among groups of otherwise equally well qualified individuals. While the Marine Corps has taken positive actions, which seem to be paying off, USMC and CNA efforts continue to understand the gaps. On December 17, 1993, CNA held a conference to probe this topic from many different perspectives.
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May 1, 1994
VAdm. Doyle, USN (Ret) and RAdm. Meyer, USN (Ret), among others, have expressed concern to Adm. Kelso, the Chief of Naval Operations, regarding the technical expertise of Navy officers. Their concern is that the decline in officer technical expertise is harming the acquisition process and threatening the capabilities of the U.S. Navy. Adm. Kelso asked CNA to study the issue, and this briefing describes our analysis.
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September 1, 1993
As part of the study Managing the Enlisted Marine Corps in the 1990s, CNA analyzed success patterns of Marines making lateral moves. Each of these Marines retrains in a primary military occupational specialty different from the original one. The Marine Corps currently has no basis for judging the success of Marines initiating lateral moves. Our analysis of historical data provides planners with information to help judge the efficiency of these moves. We will first describe the Marine Corps manpower planning and how lateral moves fit into this planning. We then consider the costs of selective reenlistment bonuses versus lateral moves. Finally, we provide statistical analysis of historical data on lateral moves. Our analysis of lateral moves focuses on the following considerations: (a) patterns of successful completion of a lateral move; (b) the promotion and attrition experience of Marines who have made lateral moves relative to their cohorts; and (c) experience in the Marine Corps compared with performance of occupation-related tasks.
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July 1, 1993
The Marine Corps recruits and screens about 2,000 officer candidates annually. Recruiting minority candidates who meet its stringent standards, however, is not easy. Recruiting qualified minorities is especially difficult because of stiff competition from other services, industry, government, and the academic arena. Consider these statistics: (1) of male college graduates in 1990-1991, five percent were African-Americans, and three percent were Hispanics; (2) only two percent of males with Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) scores meeting USMC standards were African-American, and four percent Hispanic. It is clear that the Marine Corps must recruit more than a proportionate share of the qualified minority pool. Can the Marine Corps improve the way it allocates recruiting goals and resources to take advantage of regional variations in race/ethnicity. Headquarters Marine Corps asked CNA to help with this problem as part of its study of Successful Recruiting and Training of Marine Corps Officers. In this study, we also explored the relationship between officer candidate characteristics and success in Officer Candidate School, commissioning, and The Basic School. In addition, we looked at officer characteristics and promotions to captain and major.
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June 1, 1993
As the Navy shrinks, it is likely that the ratio of sea duty to shore duty will rise and advancement opportunities will fall for enlisted personnel. This research memorandum investigates the relationships of sea duty, advancement, and reenlistment at the end of the first term. We explore these relationships with a variety of statistical models while controlling for economic variables, personal characteristics, fiscal year, and rating group. With regard to sea duty, we support the evidence found in other studies: sea duty has a negative but small effect on retention for first-term sailors. For advancement, we are unable to separate an advancement effect independent of such variables as pay and ability. We do not conclude that advancement does not effect retention -- rather that pay and ability, which are closely linked to advancement, capture the main impact of advancement on retention.
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February 1, 1993
This research memorandum completes the Managing the Enlisted Marine Corps in the 1990s Study. It summarizes study analyses, referring the reader to more detailed papers if more information is required.
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December 1, 1991
This research memorandum documents the slowdown in enlisted Marine promotions in the last decade. It describes the time in grade at promotion for all enlisted Marines promoted from FY 1979 through FY 1990.
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January 1, 1990
Title IV of the Department of Defense Reorganization Act of 1986 (also known as the Goldwater-Nichols Act) requires officers to serve in a billet on the Joint Duty Assignment List (JDAL) before being promoted to flag rank. This research memorandum examines whether this requirement can be executed for all naval officers promoted to flag. The size of the JDAL and average tour length are used to calculate the average number of officers per cohort who can be expected to achieve this requirement in each officer community. Various modifications in the requirement are also explored to determine their effect on the percentage of officers likely to achieve the requirement.
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August 1, 1989
This research memorandum provides personnel projections for the Electronic Warfare Technician rating. The projections are obtained from a simulation model and show how the future of the rating will vary with the mix of four- and six-year obligors. The analysis focuses on projected sea and shore manning, accessions, promotion opportunity, longevity, and individuals account.
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