Research for Advancement

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December 1, 2007
As the U.S. and coalition forces prosecute the Global War on Terrorism and support other contingency operations around the world, the demand for Navy manpower to augment deployed forces from all Services has increased dramatically. These manpower augmentation requirements represent unfunded, unplanned, but necessary allotments of Navy personnel to augment existing units and organizations so that Navy and Combatant Commanders can effectively perform their assigned missions. Active duty Servicemembers who are pulled from their current commands and sent on TAD orders to fill these requirements are known as Individual Augmentees (IAs). With this increased demand has come concern about the Navy’s ability to continue to effectively provide manpower to support these requests. To help the Navy address these concerns, CNA examined two issues. The first was whether Servicemembers with particular characteristics were more likely to be selected for IA assignments. Some characteristics, such as paygrade and occupation, may be explicit requirements of the IA request, while others, such as race/ethnicity and marital status, are not. The second issue was whether IA assignments have affected the career progression of active duty Servicemembers. Of particular interest are the effects on retention, promotion, and sea/shore rotation for active duty enlisted Sailors and officers.
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March 1, 2003
Abstract:D7675 The Navy finished FY02 above planned endstrength because of higher than anticipated retention. Despite cuts in the FY03 accession goal, there are concerns that the Navy might continue to be above planned strength. At the same time, there is a concern that additional cuts in accessions would leave the Navy with long-term manning problems. Therefore, this study examines the Navy's steady-state, non-prior-service accession requirements to see if further cuts would result in a cohort that is too severely undersized. We estimate a range of requirements using FY01 and FY00 retention, but incorporate recent improvements in first-term attrition, likely changes in economic conditions, and future changes in advancement opportunities. We estimate a range of non-prior-service accession requirements of 42,300-46,000; this implies a total steady-state accession requirement of 45,000-48,700. If steady-state requirements are at the lower end of this range, current conditions do support a temporary cut in accessions. Cutting accessions carries some risk, however; if requirements are closer to the upper end of our estimates, the current first-term cohort is appropriately sized. It is imperative, therefore, that the Navy carefully monitor the retention of any undersized cohorts and be committed to protecting retention with reenlistment incentives.
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