Research for Policy Analysis
This volume provides a detailed set of insights and recommendations intended to be useful to U.S. Navy decision-makers and staff officers charged with developing the current and next generations of Navy capstone documents.
The National Guard Youth Challenge (ChalleNGe) program is a quasi-military residential program for young high school dropouts. The ChalleNGe model includes a number of core components, with a focus on academics, physical fitness, and service. In this research, we examine how various aspects of the ChalleNGe model affect cadets, detail the types of schools cadets previously attended, and report on the military performance of those ChalleNGe cadets who go on to enlist. We find no evidence that cadets’ characteristics have an impact on how well ChalleNGe works; the program successfully serves cadets from a wide variety of backgrounds, many of whom previously attended poorly-performing school districts. Our research indicates that militarism is a central element of the ChalleNGe program. Graduation rates are higher at more militaristic programs; also, among cadets who enlist, those from more militaristic programs have better first-term performance. Finally, while enlisted cadets still struggle to adapt to the military during the second and third years of enlistment, the first-term attrition of ChalleNGe cadets continue to decrease over time.
This paper models cumulative cost and schedule for research and development contracts using the non-linear Rayleigh distribution. Parametric estimation, using the actual data to date of an executing contract, yields independent forecasts of final contract cost and schedule that give early warning of potential execution difficulties to decision-makers. Overall contract cost and schedule risk can also be calculated. The model was rigorously tested and validated against 107 completed development contracts drawn from the DOD database over a 35 year period. A software application was also developed to graphically portray trends and includes automated business insights. In addition, a plan assessment module was developed to evaluate plan realism. This module can be used to assess the realism of a contractor's offer during source selection and to assess plan realism early in contract execution, even before actual cost data are available. The module may also be used to assess the realism of research and development funding profiles.
This study, funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, seeks to identify education pathways to high-paying careers and the extent to which economic mobility is contingent upon students’ educational preparation and performance. This study uses comprehensive data on high school, postsecondary, and workforce experiences of every grade 9 student in Florida public schools in 1996.
The DASN (Safety) asked CNA to identify individual risk factors that contribute to motor vehicle fatalities across the Navy. We conducted a statistical analysis, characterizing the relationship of various demographic factors and career events to these outcomes. We looked separately at motorcycle accidents, an area of interest because of the growing numbers of motorcycle deaths among military personnel. The objective of the study is to determine, in an analytically sound manner, the factors that explain vehicle fatality rates. The hope is that this will aid in selecting tools and interventions to reduce deaths.
At their 15th year of service, military personnel who are eligible and intend to serve for 20 years must choose either: (1) High-3 retirement plan or (2) A reduced retirement (REDUX) and a $30,000 bonus paid at the 15th year of service. This paper is designed to help servicemembers make that decision. We describe the REDUX/bonus option as an early, partial cash-out of the servicemember’s retirement pension that the member pays back in the form of reduced retirement checks over his or her entire lifetime. We calculate how much the servicemember will “pay back” (the reduction in pension benefits) and we calculate the implied APR or interest rate for this loan. For example, an E-7 who retires at age 38 with 20 years of service is paying an implied interest rate of 14.3% and would see his or her retired pay reduced by $357,860 if he or she lived to 79 years. Even if the servicemember received the bonus tax free, the repayment amount is over 10 times the amount of the loan ($30,000). If the servicemember lives to 85, the repayment amount would be $473,216. For virtually all servicemembers, choosing REDUX/bonus is a bad (and costly) decision.
In April 2008, CNA convened some of America’s leading experts on Africa from across a wide spectrum of disciplines and perspectives.
This report aims to help school districts deal with the challenges of newly enrolling or rapidly increasing English language learner students by offering background information and sharing the experiences of districts that have addressed similar challenges in providing services and infrastructure to support the success of English language learners. Prepared by Regional Educational Laboratory (REL) Appalachia, administered by CNA Education.
The Commandant of the Marine Corps wants to ensure that Marines reflect the racial and ethnic characteristics of society. This paper examines the accession, representation, success, and retention of black and Hispanic Marines in the Corps’ active component. We find that black Marines’ accession and representation shares have fallen and currently are below the relevant black shares of the U.S. population. In contrast, the accession and representation shares of Hispanic Marines have generally increased over time. We also assess the occupational distribution of black and Hispanic Marines and find that they are more likely to be concentrated in support occupations. Next, we examine retention and Quality of Life for black enlisted Marines. We find that their retention behavior indicates that they have found satisfying careers in the Corps. The Corps offers black Marines steady jobs with good economic security, and black male Marines are as likely to be married as their white counterparts. Finally, we determine the prevalence of leadership and promotion opportunities for black and Hispanic Marines. We find that black and Hispanic Marines constitute a larger share of the Corps’ top enlisted ranks than suggested by their accession shares and they have done very well in officer promotions.
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