Research for Middle East

U.S. policy makers lack sufficient understanding of the populist Islamist milieu in the Middle East and fail to take into account the Islamists’ long-term objectives and extended time frame. This is particularly evident in the context of national elections. The observer originally spoke on the basis of non-attribution but agreed that we might make limited distribution of his comments if we preserved his anonymity.

The Centro Militare di Studi Strategici (CeMISS) in Rome, part of the NDU equivalent of the Italian Ministry of Defense (CASD), has wanted to set up a continuing relation with CNA, following a program they had with RAND. As a pilot project, on a personal basis, Drs. Gaffney and Whiteneck responded to CeMISS's request for a study of the implications of a nuclear-armed Iran for both the Middle East and a wider sphere, particularly southern Europe. The study explores what Iran's strategic relations are at present (end-2005), and how these might chnage if Iran had nuclear weapons. THe answer generally is that it complicates these relations and makes Iran a target for nuclear retaliation if they were ever to use such weapons. This document includes the transcript of a discussion in Rome and te briefing presented to frame the discussion. This study is also being published by CeMISS in an Italian translation.

This research memorandum examines the use of sealift during Operation Desert Shield/Desert Storm. It describes the responsiveness and contribution to the overall effort of the Afloat Prepositioning Force, fast sealift ships, the Ready Reserve Force, and chartered ships, both foreign and domestic. Updates CRM 91-14.