Research for Asia
This report addresses the major security issues associated with the Arabian Sea. It includes three separate papers that address three central issues: Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, examined in an essay by RADM (ret.) Michael A. McDevitt, Senior Fellow at CNA and Long Littoral Project Director, and Dr. Michael Connell, Director of CNA’s Iran Studies Program; piracy in the Arabian Sea, explored in a comprehensive assessment by Mr. Martin Murphy of the U.S. Atlantic Council; and the India-Pakistan maritime rivalry in the Arabian Sea, addressed by Dr. Satu Limaye, Director of the East-West Center’s Washington, D.C., office.
East China Sea", and "China’s Evolving Interests and Activities in the East China Sea".
This report addresses the major security issues associated with the Bay of Bengal. In this 838,600 square mile area, security threats to numerous countries, including the United States, range from disputes over exclusive economic zones to terrorism, piracy, poaching, overfishing, and trafficking of humans, arms, and narcotics. A review of the full spectrum of threats in the Bay of Bengal reveals two dominant security challenges: nascent China-India competition and the likelihood of a natural disaster. This report explores these issues in order to assess U.S. policy options for addressing each of them. It concludes by recommending ways to manage the potential for China-India strategic rivalry and to mitigate the damage of an environmental catastrophe.
On August 9, 2012, CNA hosted a workshop examining trends in Naval developments in Asia. As the PLA Navy demonstrates genuine competence and professionalism on distant sea operations, despite being oriented to peacetime missions, this is, ironically, raising concerns among littoral states of the Indo-Pacific over the security implications of a PLA navy that is becoming more expeditionary. Clearly the introduction of modern amphibious ships, and, shortly, an aircraft carrier force, provides the PLAN with a credible power-projection capability. This emerging capability is, in turn, creating a demand by littoral states for area-denial capabilities such as submarines and land-based aircraft with anti-ship cruise missiles. This workshop explored this interaction.
Because security concerns in East Asia have increasingly revolved around problems in the maritime domain, the Center for Naval Analyses has elected to make maritime security in East Asia the focal point for a series of workshops that will explore these issues in depth.
Across the border in Pakistan, government authorities have, since the late 19th century, organized, trained, equipped and paid Pashtun tribesmen to provide local security. The Frontier Corps (FC) is the most prominent of these groups. Under the British, the Frontier Corps was an instrument in a wider system of indirect imperial control. Since independence in 1947, Pakistan has employed the Frontier Corps to police the Afghan border and tribal areas and in so doing, has helped free up the army to prepare for conventional military operations. This primary purpose of this paper is to provide historical and contemporary context for analysts, practitioners, and decision-makers who focus on local security structures in conflict and post-conflict environments.
Bilateral relations between the United States and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam have evolved rapidly since ties were normalized in 1995. One factor drawing the two countries together is the complex relationship both have with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This paper examines the China factor in the relationship between the United States and Vietnam, and assesses the extent to which shared concerns over China encourage and limit cooperation between the two countries.
This paper examines four potential post-Kim Chong-il scenarios: continuation of the Kim regime, albeit in a weaker state; collapse of the Kim regime and replacement by another, weak regime; collapse of the Kim regime followed by chaos; and, collapse of the Kim regime followed by conflict.
China is an emerging maritime actor with expanding interests in security at sea. As a consequence, the capabilities of Chinese maritime security forces are improving, missions for the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) are expanding, new actors and bureaucratic interests are emerging, and some observers feel that China is now more willing to challenge the interests of others in the maritime domain. CNA has undertaken this study to provide strategic-level context in order to foster discussion and debate about China’s maritime rise and its implications.
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