North Korea after Kim Chong-il: Leadership Dynamics and Potential Crisis Scenarios

In August 2008, Kim Chong-il reportedly suffered a stroke. On October 4, after a 51-day absence, he reappeared in the pages of the North Korean media, bringing to an end speculation that he had died. While the international media spotlight began to fade, this incident raised serious questions among intelligence analysts and policymakers alike from Washington, DC to Seoul and Beijing. What would have happened if Kim had died in a period in which the regime had not worked out the succession? What kind of leadership configuration would emerge? Could the regime sustain itself or would it collapse into chaos? Even though the regime has subsequently taken steps to deal with such an eventuality, many of these questions remain.

This paper examines four potential post-Kim Chong-il scenarios:

• Continuation of the Kim regime, albeit in a weaker state
• Collapse of the Kim regime and replacement by another, weak regime
• Collapse of the Kim regime followed by chaos
• Collapse of the Kim regime followed by conflict

Each scenario carries with it implications for North Korean policymaking and the potential for the regime’s near-, medium-, and long-term survival. Each also highlights the complexities and dilemmas the United States and its allies in the region would face from a policymaking perspective and in terms of crisis management.