The Future Strategic Environment of East Asia: Implications of a PRC-Taiwan Reunification

When considering the future security environment of East Asia, it is intriguing to consider how this architecture might be affected by a cross-Strait reunification.
What would China choose to do with this new situation? How would U.S. partners and allies in the region respond? And what opportunities and challenges would
open up for the United States?

The answers depend in large part on the post-reunification mindset of China, of other countries in Asia, and of the United States. A cross-Strait reunification would
bring the United States, China, and U.S. regional allies and partners to a decision point. All actors in the region would need to reevaluate their previous assessments of the regional security environment, and the policies resulting from these assessments.

These assessments, in turn, would result from the specific changes to facts on the ground. Certain facts would not automatically change as a result of a reunification. Issues that have long shaped the East Asian security environment, such as tensions on the Korean peninsula, would remain unaltered. The United States would still have a basic interest in maintaining access to sea lines of communication (SLOCs) and in ensuring peace and stability in the region. U.S. alliances, which are not contingent upon Taiwan and China remaining separate, would persist.