An Analysis of Navy Recruiting Goal Allocation Models

Achieving the desired overall force composition in the Navy requires accessing the right mix of recruits—enlisted and officer, active and reserve. To do this, the Navy must have details about the available recruitable population, including where specific types of people are located. The Commander of Navy Recruiting Command (CNRC) asked CNA to help improve the methods and models which currently geographically allocate recruiting goals. NRC uses econometric models to guide to allocate goals for recruiting enlisted personnel, and employs a less rigorous method for officers. These models consider a variety of factors, but they have limitations. There has not been a review of the enlisted model since the late 1990s, and the current model does not consider all the components of the recruiting market that the Navy may want to examine. The Navy’s method for allocating officer recruiting goals has been developed in less detail, and has not been evaluated recently. Additionally, recruiting goals are tied to Navy Recruiting Districts (NRDs), which are quite large, thus preventing precise allocation of manpower and advertising funds for recruiting purposes. More precise goaling models can facilitate NRC’s ability to restructure recruiting in the future.