Psychology and the Mined: Overcoming Psychological Barriers to the Use of Statistics in Naval Mine Warfare

Statistical methods can be used to assess the risk posed by naval minefields to ships that are transiting or loitering in mined waterspace. However, there are psychological impediments to the effective use of this information, which can result in sub-optimal decision-making regarding whether or how to navigate in mined waters. This paper characterizes how specific heuristics (mental shortcuts used in addressing a situation) can affect decision-making, and offers palliatives that can improve the robustness of decision-making in a potentially mined environment.