Does Education Reform Make Recruiting More Difficult?

In recent years, states have substantially increased requirements for high school graduation. At the same time, the number of young people earning General Education Development (GED) certificates has increased dramatically. Both of these changes have the potential to make recruiting more difficult for DoD. In this research, we use Census data to examine how the pool of potential recruits has changed in the face of these changing education requirements. Next, we examine how the performance of Sailors and Marines has changed in response to these requirements. We find that education requirements often have nuanced effects on the civilian population—helping some groups while harming others. Within the Navy and the Marine Corps, education requirements have had only muted effects to date. In general, attrition rates are not influenced by these policies, but some measures of quality (i.e., AFQT scores) are. Finally, we find that the growth of those holding alternate credentials in the Navy is not related to education requirements at all but instead is related to the recruiting environment. We expect requirements to continue to tighten in the near future.