Predictors of Attrition: Attitudes, Behaviors, and Educational Characteristics

This paper explores the influence of education credentials, attitudes, and behaviors on first-term attrition. As in the past, education credentials remain strong predictors of attrition. However, we also find that measures of attitudes and past behaviors not included in recruits’ official records are strongly related to the likelihood of attrition. Examples include smoking behavior and attitude towards completing high school. We also find that enlistees with certificates of completion or attendance have substantially lower attrition than others holding alternate credentials. Finally, some characteristics (such as age) have differential effects on traditional high school diploma graduates versus those with alternate credentials. Our results suggest that, although education credential remains a consistent predictor of attrition, other factors are also extremely important. This provides the Services with the opportunity to lower overall attrition rates by screening for recruits with strong noncognitive factors.