Toward an Understanding of the Role of Incentives in Enlisted Recruiting

The last half of the 1990s was a difficult period for military recruiting. To improve its ability to meet the recruiting mission, the Navy greatly expanded the use of enlistment incentives. However, the level and distribution of incentives were based on relatively little research, and what research did exist failed to account for such phenomena as the low unemployment rates during the late 1990s. As a consequence, we were tasked to investigate one aspect of incentives¾the effects of changes in Enlistment Bonuses on enlistments in ratings with similar recruit qualifications. Our research into the levels of bonuses offered, their relationship to other monetary incentives within and across ratings, and the interaction of these offers with shipping goals led us to conclude that an accurate estimate of the effect of individual incentives on rating choice is not possible using historical data only. We cannot determine whether the existence of a relationship between enlistments and incentives is the direct result of incentives or stems from a constellation of factors that simultaneously determine rating and ship date selection. Anecdotal evidence indicates that the options offered depend on a complicated process that takes into account goals, rating, and ship date priorities.