Steady-State Accession Requirements
Published Date: March 1, 2003
Abstract:D7675 The Navy finished FY02 above planned endstrength because of higher than anticipated retention. Despite cuts in the FY03 accession goal, there are concerns that the Navy might continue to be above planned strength. At the same time, there is a concern that additional cuts in accessions would leave the Navy with long-term manning problems. Therefore, this study examines the Navy's steady-state, non-prior-service accession requirements to see if further cuts would result in a cohort that is too severely undersized. We estimate a range of requirements using FY01 and FY00 retention, but incorporate recent improvements in first-term attrition, likely changes in economic conditions, and future changes in advancement opportunities. We estimate a range of non-prior-service accession requirements of 42,300-46,000; this implies a total steady-state accession requirement of 45,000-48,700. If steady-state requirements are at the lower end of this range, current conditions do support a temporary cut in accessions. Cutting accessions carries some risk, however; if requirements are closer to the upper end of our estimates, the current first-term cohort is appropriately sized. It is imperative, therefore, that the Navy carefully monitor the retention of any undersized cohorts and be committed to protecting retention with reenlistment incentives.
