Inside the Black Box: Assessing the Navy's Manpower Requirements Process

Abstract: D5206 The Navy determines the number of sailors it needs on board ships through a complex and demanding process. To those not directly involved, it is a black box. This study describes the Navy's methods and compares them to practices used by private-sector firms. It identifies assumptions that drive the number of people needed, or "manpower requirements," and quantifies the impact of those assumptions on billets and costs. The study concludes that the Navy's manpower requirements process is thorough, accountable, and meets the Navy's stated goals. However, it does not adequately consider manning alternatives. In setting requirements, the Navy takes technology as given and uses decades-old assumptions about work hours, labor productivity, and the paygrade mix of the crew. Such assumptions, which are "hard-wired" into the Navy's requirements computation model, are costly and merit revalidation. Other problems include limited cost incentives and a lack of performance metrics with which to assess different manning configurations. The study recommends that the Navy (a) make the costs (and benefits) of requirements more visible (b) shift the focus from workload validation toward innovation and improvement; and (c) charge an agent or organization with identifying avenues for manpower savings, through methodological, technological, or organizational changes.