Indonesia's Political Evolution Over the Next 5-10 Years

Abstract:D6866 Although the initial burst of reformist energy that followed Soeharto's fall in 1998 has largely dissipated, the long-term prognosis for Indonesia remains basically positive. Expectations for democratic reform should be kept modest for the foreseeable future. President Megawati Sukarnoputri's opponents in the 2004 elections do not have strong political bases, and she appears likely to win re-election, but will probably govern with a shaky coalition. Political and government institutions, the judicial system, the police, and political parties are weak, and will gain strength only slowly. Parliament is unable to deal with more than a fraction of the legislation before it. The armed forces are not likely to take over, but will exercise considerable influence despite their formal removal from politics. Islamic-agenda political parties are divided: they may win up to 20% of the vote, but are not likely to coalesce around a single leader. The resilience of the Indonesian people is likely to prevent popular anger at government's failings from exploding.