Bootcamp Attrition Rates: Predictions For FY 1999

This briefing examines bootcamp attrition, including predictions for FY99 rates, subsequent fleet attrition, and the role of recruit quality. We project an FY99 Navy bootcamp attrition rate of 20 percent, up 4 percent from FY98. We found holding down bootcamp attrition did not result in increased fleet attrition for these accession cohorts, as measured by 33-month attrition rates for accessions from FY90-FY95. Finally, we observed changes in recruit quality explain only a small part of attrition increase, as measured by high school diploma graduates, AFQT, and Delayed Entry Program (DEP).