Russian Commercial Shipping in the Year 2002

Russian military specialists have argued that Russia will need a strong blue-water naval capability to protect her large merchant fleet, among other reasons. In this paper, we conclude that, in a decade, Russia will likely have a merchant fleet one-third to one-half of the size of the Soviet 1991 merchant fleet. Without a significant increase in capital investment, rapidly aging ships and market-based operational expenses promise to greatly reduce Russia's share of the once large Soviet merchant fleet. This information memorandum is one of a series of analyses produced in response to a request by the Director of Naval Intelligence that would define the probable character of the future Soviet or Russian Navy.