Effects of Sea Duty and Advancement on First-Term Retention

As the Navy shrinks, it is likely that the ratio of sea duty to shore duty will rise and advancement opportunities will fall for enlisted personnel. This research memorandum investigates the relationships of sea duty, advancement, and reenlistment at the end of the first term. We explore these relationships with a variety of statistical models while controlling for economic variables, personal characteristics, fiscal year, and rating group. With regard to sea duty, we support the evidence found in other studies: sea duty has a negative but small effect on retention for first-term sailors. For advancement, we are unable to separate an advancement effect independent of such variables as pay and ability. We do not conclude that advancement does not effect retention -- rather that pay and ability, which are closely linked to advancement, capture the main impact of advancement on retention.