Tracking Russian Foreign Policy Into The 21st Century: A Bear-Watcher's Guide
Published Date: October 1, 1992
This research memorandum is one element of a comprehensive examination by CNA of the evolving Russian Navy for the Office of Naval Intelligence. It examines the likely paths of Russian foreign policy as the country moves into the 21st century and suggests that Russia's ability to conduct foreign policy in the future will be limited by the extent to which the nation advances in its ongoing economic and political reforms. The more successful the reforms, the greater will be Russia's capacity for an influential and vigorous foreign policy. In contrast to the communist period, the size and prominence of Russia's military will be inversely related to the scope of its foreign policy, i.e., the more activist Russia's foreign policy is, the more subordinate the military component will be in relation to other foreign policy resources. Thus, a militarized foreign policy will signal a failed domestic reform process and a weakened Russian state.
