Four Possible Directions for Economic Reform in Russia: How Will They Constrain the Military?

This research memorandum outlines four possible directions for the reform of the Russian economy -- Western-led reform (patterned after an approach to reform prescribed by the International Monetary Fund), Russian-led reform, industry-led reform, and a return to a state-run economy (retrenchment). The paper measures how the military and the defense industries will be affected -- in the short- and the long-term -- by these courses of reform. Finally, the paper outlines the most likely course for the future of the Russian Navy.