EVALUATING AIR COMBAT MANEUVERING ENGAGEMENTS, VOLUME I, METHODOLOGY

This study describes two stochastic models for evaluating air combat maneuvering (ACM) engagements. The Maneuver Conversion Model is applicable to engagements where a successful outcome is determined primarily by maneuvering effectiveness of the combatants. In this model, the events of air-to-air engagements are assumed to behave as a semi-Markov process with various absorbing states. The Firing Sequence Model is intended for analysis of engagements where a successful outcome depends on aircrew ability to capitalize on weapon performance. This model also assumes a Markov process, but analyzes test-range data as tabulations of weapon-firing incidents for each engagement. Common measures of effectiveness, such as the probability of achieving first weapon-firing opportunity and the expected exchange ratio, may be used in both models to estimate ACM performance. Volume I presents the analytic methodologies for both models, and provides under CNO Project P/V2 (Battle Cry), and illustrates the Maneuver Conversion Model methodology.