Testimony before the Commerce and Labor Committee of the Virginia Senate

February 4, 2008

Testimony Before The Commerce And Labor Committee of the Virginia Senate, Sen. Dick Saslaw, Chair

by

Edward T. (Tom) Morehouse Jr., member of the study team for
the report “National Security and the Threat of Climate Change”

Chairman Saslaw, distinguished members of the Committee, I am pleased to be here today to speak in support of SB446, the Clean Energy Future Act. My intention is to help begin an important conversation about a closely related set of challenges we all face: global climate change, our national security and our future energy choices.

About 18 months ago, the CNA Corporation, a non-profit analysis organization located in Alexandria, VA, convened a panel of retired three- and four-star generals and admirals to study how climate change could affect our nation's security over the next 30 to 40 years — this is about the planning timeframe for the next generation of military systems.

This Military Advisory Board represented all four services, and included Service chiefs and regional combatant commanders who were responsible for all U.S. forces in a given region of the world. We asked them to answer 3 questions:

1. What conditions are climate changes likely to produce that would represent security risks to the United States?
2. How could these conditions affect our national security?
3. What should we do about it?

I was part of the study team that formulated the questions and collected the information these military leaders needed to answer those questions. We arranged a series of briefings and discussions with the intelligence community, climate scientists, multi-national business leaders, state officials and some of our closest allies, such as the United Kingdom.

The study began in January 2006, and the final report was published in April 2007. The key conclusion from the study was that projected climate change poses a serious threat to America's national security. This result was based on both the likelihood that human activities are contributing to climate change and consequences of climate change.

The human activities we refer to are those that put carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, such as burning fossil fuels. Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are higher today than at any time in the past 650,000 years. Their level is steadily increasing along with the average global temperature.

While uncertainty exists and debate continues about the science and extent of future climate changes, the trends are clear and have serious implications for our national security.

As the Chairman of our Military Advisory Board, General Gordon Sullivan, the 32nd Chief of Staff of the Army so aptly put it “People are saying they want to be convinced perfectly. We never have 100 percent certainty. If you wait until you have 100 percent certainty, something bad is going to happen...You have to act with incomplete information. You have to act based on the trend line.”

The trend line he refers to is the correlation of the steady increase in global temperature along with the steady increase in carbon dioxide levels. I'll give you a few examples of what that trend line means for our security.

Climate change reduces access to fresh water for drinking, sanitation and irrigation:

• Mountain glaciers are the primary drinking water source for many populations around the world and they're disappearing rapidly.
• Precipitation patterns are changing, causing droughts and causing deserts to expand.
• Parts of Latin America, including Mexico, are already subject to drought, which are predicted to last longer in the future, leading to further loss of food production.
• Some other countries and regions predicted to be affected that are also important to us include: Pakistan — a key ally in our war against terrorists, China — a key trading partner and strategic competitor, the Middle East — because of our current dependence on their oil, Africa — because of our increasing dependence on their oil.

Climate change affects the spread of disease:

• As increasing temperatures cause the habitats of disease carrying insects to move and expand, so does the risk of health catastrophes.
• Diseases like dengue fever and malaria are expected to become more common in places they do not currently appear.
• Health emergencies such as these can quickly expand to create major regional or global security problems.

Climate change can result in land loss and population displacement from flooding due to sea level rise and elevated storm surge:

• Significant sea level rise is a real threat to about two-thirds of the world's population who lives near coastlines
• It also threatens important infrastructure, such as transportation routes, industrial facilities, ports, and energy production and distribution facilities are often located in coastal regions, such as the Gulf of Mexico.

Climate change increases the potential for failed states and the growth of terrorism:

• Many developing countries lack the government and social infrastructures to cope with the types of stresses that could be brought on by climate change.
• The DoD recently established a new Combatant Command — the Africa Command, a reflection of Africa's increasing strategic importance to the U.S. as a source of oil. Africa is predicted to be one of the most seriously affected regions.

Climate change can cause mass migrations that add to global tensions:

• When water or food supplies shift or when conditions deteriorate (from sea level rise, for example), people are likely move to find better conditions.

And the U.S. is not immune. We will experience many of the same effects such as increased drought in some areas and flooding in others, sea level rise and increasing storm surge.

The report concludes the threat is real, and we need to act now. The longer we wait to act, the greater the risks and more severe the consequences become.

As our Chairman General Sullivan put it when asked to compare the risks of climate change with those of the Cold War, “…the Cold War was a specter, but climate change is inevitable. If we keep on with business as usual, we will reach a point where some of the worst effects are inevitable.”

Our best chance of avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to stabilize the situation, which means stabilizing our carbon emissions. If we were to describe climate science in military terms, you'd call it “actionable intelligence.” — this means we know enough to take action.

The bill before you today provides Virginia with new, renewable energy options. It is the kind of action that helps to stabilize our carbon emissions, secure our energy future and strengthen our national security.

Thank you for the opportunity to speak to you today about this important national security issue.

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